England needs 120% of normal rainfall to escape drought by spring

England needs around 120% of its typical rainfall over the next seven months to fully escape drought by spring, with farmers in some regions facing the prospect of entering the 2027 growing season with water supplies still under pressure.

Almost three-quarters of England remains in drought following an exceptionally dry spring and summer, according to the latest Environment Agency and Defra update. Rivers, groundwater and reservoirs must return to normal levels before affected areas can formally move out of drought.

The warning came after the National Drought Group met on Tuesday, 15 September, with water companies asked to set out their autumn and winter drought preparations. Public water supply was a key focus of the meeting, including leakage reduction and measures to protect supplies.

The Environment Agency says rainfall totalling about 120% of the long-term norm over the seven months to April would be needed for every area to recover. The figure applies to rainfall accumulated across the period rather than requiring every individual month to be 20% wetter than average.

For agriculture, the outlook raises questions over irrigation, abstraction and water storage heading into next spring, particularly in areas already dealing with depleted water resources.

Under the Environment Agency’s most likely weather scenario, East Anglia would still be in drought at the start of April 2027, while Devon and Cornwall would remain in a fragile recovery.

There is also roughly a one-in-four chance of rainfall reaching only around 80% of average between September and March.

Under that drier scenario, around half the country could still be experiencing drought next spring, including East Anglia, Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, the Thames Valley, Devon and Cornwall, Wessex, Solent and the South Downs, and the West Midlands.

The government has also reiterated support aimed at helping farmers deal with drought and improve longer-term water resilience, including funding towards on-farm reservoirs.

Such reservoirs can allow businesses to capture and store water when it is available for use during periods of greater demand.

Other drought measures have included greater flexibility around water sharing and abstraction arrangements, while restrictions designed to protect rivers during low flows remain an important consideration for agricultural abstractors.

Environment Agency chief executive Philip Duffy said the recovery remained dependent on sustained rainfall rather than a few wetter weeks.

He said: “Water supplies are limited and we continue to balance the needs of agriculture, public water supply and our environment.”

Recent rainfall has eased some agricultural drought pressures, with fewer abstraction restrictions than earlier in the summer, but the Environment Agency says the overall water resources position remains poor.

The scale of rainfall needed for recovery also highlights how quickly water reserves can be depleted after a dry growing season.

Even average rainfall through autumn and winter would not guarantee a full recovery everywhere, leaving some important farming regions facing continued water pressure as preparations begin for the 2027 season.

For farms reliant on irrigation or licensed abstraction, the coming months will therefore be critical as businesses assess cropping plans, storage capacity and likely water requirements for next spring and summer.

The latest projections suggest that even a wetter autumn and winter may not produce an immediate recovery everywhere, leaving parts of England vulnerable to renewed pressure when agricultural water demand begins to rise again.