Feed Wheat market report
• Egypt’s GASC purchases 240,000mt of Argentine / French soft wheat for February 11-20 shipment, and purchases 230.000mt of US / French hard / soft wheat for February 20-28 shipment.
• Since the 2010/11 started (July 1st), GASC has purchased about 4.11mln/t of non-FSU wheat, compared with 5.53mln/t purchased for the 2009/10 season.
• Iraq purchases 250,000mt of US wheat, although traders believe that the purchase involved 50,000mt from Australia.
• French soft wheat exports reached 1.75mln/t in October, taking the total for the July-October period to 6.7mln/t.
Within this total, which is 23% above the same period last year, exports outside the EU-27 were 4.5mln/t, up 39%.
• Coceral raises 2010/11 EU-27 soft wheat production to 128.07mln/t, up from a previous estimate of 126.81mln/t made in September, although this is still below the 2009 crop figure of 130.97mln/t.
• UK wheat exports slowed slightly in October at 324,182mt, bringing the total so far for the 2010/11 season to 1.19mln/t. In the same period last season, exports totalled 584,880mt – main destination remains the Netherlands with 328,897mt being shipped.
• USDA raises 2010/11 US corn and wheat stocks in their monthly report released last Friday – Final production figures will be issued in the January report. They also raised Global 2010 wheat production, citing increases for Australia, Canada and Pakistan, offsetting a decline in Russian production – projection for 2010/11 ending stocks was increased by 4.2mln/t.
• India’s wheat sowings as of December 10 were estimated at 20.71mln hectares, down 3% on last year as late rains have affected harvesting of summer crops and delayed winter crop sowings.
• Pakistani wheat traders are looking at Middle Eastern countries, as well as Bangladesh and Malaysia as possible destinations after the government lifted a three-year ban on exports because of a bumper crop and market surplus.
• Russian grain stocks as of November 1st were reported at 40.4mln/t, down 25% from the same time last year.
• Drought across Ukrainian grain producing areas in September-November has caused a 5% fall in winter grain area sown to 2011. UkrAgroConsult report the area sown to the 2011 winter grains had fallen to 8.2mln hectares from 8.62mln a year earlier. The wheat area fell to 6.65mln from 6.7mln, with barley estimated at 1.22mln hectares, also down from last year’s 1.61mln.
• USDA report was deemed as neutral / slightly bearish, reflecting higher production and stocks. However, most traders believe more meaningful figures will be issued in January, where final crop and December stocks figures will be known. Egypt continue to source French wheat, defying the already tight S&N scenario, and with Australian quality woes, the ’quality wheat story’ is far from over.
• With major price raises in most commodities seen during 2010, traders are wary of a ’sell-off’ as the year ends, with traders cashing in profits from long positions. This may leave a negative sentiment to the market, in what is still a fundamental bullish long-term picture.
