There was a downturn in GB daily milk deliveries in the week ending 13 May, suggesting the UK has passed the peak, the AHDB has said.
According to the latest data, the highest daily figure was 37.46m litres on 5 May alongside the 7-day rolling average which appears to have peaked at 37.18m litres.
The spring flush has so far seen volumes at a similar level to last year, with the peak day only 0.2% above the highest individual day in 2022.
This is down 0.9% from the AHDB's March forecast, as cooler and wetter weather limited grazing opportunities due to the saturated ground.
This meant farmers could not fully capitalise on good grass growth in April and May.
While the height of the peak is one factor, how long these higher volumes last for also impacts the availability of milk.
Freya Shuttleworth, AHDB senior analyst, said: "In 2022 we saw a rapid fall from the peak which reduced summer volumes.
"However, higher milk prices, teamed with favourable autumn weather conditions, encouraged production growth in the autumn and winter.
"With farmgate milk prices continuing to ease, input costs remaining historically high and prices for cull cows still climbing, lower milk production is likely to be a particular concern this season.
"We will look at this further next month when we update our forecast."
