Gleadell Market Update

FEED WHEAT by David Sheppard.

David Sheppard, managing director, Gleadell Agriculture said: "The HGCA estimates GB plantings are higher than predicted with wheat up 14% at 2.07 mln/ha and barley up 12% at 981,000 ha. For wheat, this could mean production at 16.5mln/t to over 17.0mln/t if crops deliver. This would put the UK surplus at 3.0-3.5mln/t.

"The Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania are continuing to harvest good to excellent crops with ready sellers of large volumes. In France, the wheat harvest is continuing well, with crop estimates now edging up over 37mln/t.

"Markets have continued to decline, with the odd period of profit-taking over the past week. If the UK surplus is as anticipated, we need something to change to prevent a further decline. Currently the downside is a further £10 per tonne given current parities," he added.

OILSEED RAPE by Jonathan Lane

"Favourable weather conditions, a sharp decline in crude oil prices and further selling pressure as a result of the resolution on the export tax controversy in Argentina, have all conspired to take the CBOT soya complex sharply lower over the last week.

"The European rapeseed market has got hammered lower during the last 5 trading days with the November contract on the Matif rapeseed futures market down EUR37!" said Jonathan Lane, Gleadell oilseed rape trader.

"Harvest is now well underway in Europe. In Southern and Middle Germany 25% has been harvested and yields look good - production should be around last years levels despite less planted acreage. In France reported yields are above last year at 3.5-4mt per ha and the early cut seed in the UK has seen yields between 3-3.7mt/ha.

"In the Ukraine the harvest is now 60% complete and the latest production estimate is 2.7mln/t and prices have fallen some US$30-35 since the end of last week," Mr Lane added.