Gleadell Oilseed Rape report

OILSEED RAPE by Jonathan Lane

"Volatility rules!! The rapeseed market had really struggled to find its own direction in the last week with external influences being the main drivers," said Jonathan Lane, Gleadell oilseed rape trader.

"On Tuesday the USDA released its August Supply and Demand numbers in which they significantly cut the estimated yield potential of the soy crop and, despite an increase in the forecast planted area, the carryout stocks of US soybeans fell to their lowest level in living memory. The Chicago soya complex reacted last night with prices trading sharply higher in a rally that was helped by a renewed round of fund related buying in all Global commodities.

"The European rapeseed market had no option but to follow, but despite this recovery the market is still Euro 2.5 down on the week. Looking further forward we would suggest that the market will still be heavily influenced by external factors, however good crush margins could pull seed prices higher. The current slow-down in Black Sea supplies into Europe due to logistical issues and the light farmer selling in Europe could generate a lift in values. However with big crops in Europe, Ukraine and Canada we aren't getting very bullish – on the other hand further downside looks limited for the time being." Mr Lane added.