Global dairy prices projected to increase from 2016 low over coming decade

The majority of this increase (77%) is projected to come from the developing nations
The majority of this increase (77%) is projected to come from the developing nations

Global dairy prices are projected to increase from the 2016 low over the coming decade, according to the latest global outlook report.

Nonetheless, once inflation is taken into account, it is not thought that prices in real terms will return to the peak levels of 2013.

World milk production expected to increase 21% between 2016 and 2026, reaching 977Mt, according to AHDB Dairy.

The majority of this increase (77%) is projected to come from the developing nations, particularly India and Pakistan, as herd size and productivity increases.

However, most of this is expected to be consumed domestically as fresh dairy products, with consumption of these products growing at 1.8% per annum in developing regions over the decade.

Nonetheless, global demand for processed dairy products is also expected to increase 1.7% per annum overall, supporting commodity prices.

The EU in particular is expected to benefit, holding 28% of the market by 2026, 4 percentage points more than in 2016.

This follows from declining domestic demand for fresh dairy products, while milk production is still projected to grow 0.8% per annum.

Increased exports will particularly be supported by cheese shipments. China and Egypt expected to double their cheese import requirements over the decade, while the EU will also be able to send more the Canada under the CETA agreement, and Russia after the import ban is lifted.