Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index see another fall at latest auction

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price index, which occurs fortnightly, covers key global milk commodity markets
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price index, which occurs fortnightly, covers key global milk commodity markets

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index has again fallen, this time by 3.9% to US$3,537, in a return to the dominant trend of the past seven months.

The main driver for the drop at the latest event on 1 November was a large downturn in the SMP price, which fell 8.5%.

Whole milk powder (WMP) also saw significant decline, dropping 3.4%. Butter and cheese recorded marginal gains.

Since 15 March 2022, 13 out of the 16 GDT events have had a decline in the overall price index.

Analysing the latest event, Freya Shuttleworth, AHDB Dairy analyst, said the latest GDT auction saw "another step down in prices".

"Production of SMP in New Zealand is currently estimated to be around 15%-27% higher than the year earlier, according to NZX, the main dairy trading exchange," she explained.

"This increase in available product is likely to be the driving force for the declining price index.

She added: "Buying interest on the platform remained strong for EU product however, likely due to the tight supply situation there."

Contrary to SMP, production of WMP in New Zealand remains well below historic volumes.

Fonterra are reported to have a target of producing 250,000 tonnes less WMP this season, according to NZX.

"There is little appetite to increase production with demand from China weakening on the back of high stocks and ample milk production," Ms Shutteworth said.