Labour trails in fourth place in rural Wales poll ahead of Senedd election

Labour is trailing in fourth place in rural Wales ahead of the next Senedd election, new polling suggests.

The survey, commissioned by the Country Land and Business Association (CLA), places Plaid Cymru in the lead with 22.3% support, followed by Reform UK on 16.7% and the Green Party on 14.5%. Labour trails on 13.5%.

The polling was conducted among more than 1,000 voters living in Wales’s most rural constituencies, which together are home to around a third of the country’s population.

The next Senedd election is due to take place in May.

The poll suggests Labour is struggling to retain support even among its traditional voters in rural areas. Nearly one in three people who previously backed Labour say they will not support the party at the next Senedd election.

Fewer than half of Labour voters (47%) say they are “happy” with how they voted at the last election.

Among respondents who say they would not consider Labour, 20% cite the party’s performance in Westminster as their main reason — level with concerns over the cost of living. Farming and rural policy follows at 15%.

The survey also suggests the countryside vote remains highly fragmented, with no party dominating rural Wales.

On economic growth, Plaid Cymru leads with 27% of voters expressing confidence in the party. Reform UK follows on 19%, while Labour, the Conservatives and the Greens are clustered in the low teens.

Victoria Bond, director of CLA Cymru, said the results highlight a growing disconnect between political parties and rural communities.

“Rural Wales is not being listened to. A third of the country lives outside the cities, yet too many feel shut out of the decisions that shape their lives,” she said.

Bond said many rural communities are facing mounting pressures, including rising living costs, housing shortages and planning restrictions.

“Families are being priced out of their own villages. Long-standing businesses are under strain. Planning rules block growth before it begins,” she said.

“It is getting harder to stay and harder to build a future.”

She added that the countryside vote remained open to any party willing to offer a clear plan for rural areas.

“The countryside is not owned by any party. It is there to be won. Any party with a serious plan for rural Wales will find support. Those who treat it as a nice place for a walk will not.”

The cost of living is the biggest concern for rural voters, cited by 37% of respondents.

Living costs are often higher in rural areas, where people travel further for work, school and shopping. Public transport is limited and fuel bills are typically higher.

A lack of jobs and career opportunities also ranks highly among voter concerns, particularly in areas where employment is concentrated in farming, tourism and small local businesses.

Affordable housing follows closely, cited by 33% of respondents, with demand in many rural communities pushing property prices beyond local incomes.

Around a quarter of voters also point to planning delays, rural crime and poor broadband connectivity as key issues affecting countryside communities.

Taken together, the findings suggest rural voters are focused less on party politics and more on practical concerns such as jobs, housing and infrastructure.

The polling also highlights a lack of trust in political parties’ understanding of rural life.

Less than half of voters believe Labour (45%), Reform UK (45%) or the Green Party (49.6%) understand and respect rural areas. Plaid Cymru performs best on this measure, with 63% of respondents saying the party understands rural communities.

Ahead of the Senedd election, the CLA is calling for a cross-government Rural Economic Strategy to boost growth across agriculture, planning, skills and tourism.

The organisation says this should include expanding permitted development rights to speed up the creation of new homes and business space in rural areas.

It is also calling for guaranteed long-term funding for the Sustainable Farming Scheme so farmers can invest with confidence.

A National Rural Tourism Strategy is also proposed to support year-round demand and strengthen local economies beyond the summer season.

The CLA is also proposing the creation of a Rural Development Unit with statutory powers to coordinate funding, planning, regulation and skills policy across government.