Labour under pressure across countryside seats in new polling model

Labour could lose 79 rural and semi-rural seats on current voting intentions, putting the countryside at the heart of the latest electoral battleground.

The figure comes from Countryside Alliance analysis of YouGov’s latest MRP model, which examines how current voting intentions could translate into seats if a general election were held at the time of the survey.

YouGov’s central estimate puts Labour on 241 seats if a general election were held now, a net loss of 170 compared with the 2024 result and 85 seats short of an overall Commons majority.

The Conservatives are put on 130 seats and Reform UK on 123, while the Liberal Democrats are on 71, the SNP on 40, Plaid Cymru on 15 and the Greens on nine.

The Countryside Alliance has separately analysed the constituency-level figures to assess the potential impact on rural areas.

Of 135 rural and semi-rural seats currently held by Labour across England, Scotland and Wales, the group identifies 79 that would change hands under the central estimates.

Of those, 46 would go to Reform UK, 16 to the SNP, 14 to the Conservatives and three to Plaid Cymru, according to the Alliance’s analysis.

However, many of the rural contests remain close.

Of the 56 rural and semi-rural constituencies Labour would retain, the Countryside Alliance says 51 would be held by margins of 10 percentage points or less.

That includes 22 seats where Labour’s lead would be no more than two points, 12 where it would be five points or less and a further 17 where the margin would be between five and 10 points.

Many of the seats Labour is projected to lose are also marginal.

The Alliance says 63 of the 79 potential rural losses would be decided by margins of 10 points or less, including 15 where Labour trails the leading party by no more than two points.

Close races are not limited to rural constituencies. YouGov says 37% of constituencies across Great Britain are decided by five percentage points or less in its central estimate.

The MRP is a snapshot of voting intentions rather than a forecast of the eventual general election result.

YouGov based the model on responses from nearly 17,000 adults in Great Britain, with fieldwork carried out between 23 August and 18 September 2026. The organisation also publishes a range of possible seat outcomes around its central estimates.

Separate polling conducted by ORB on behalf of the Countryside Alliance found 28% of rural residents said they would be more likely to vote Labour if the party reset its relationship with rural communities.

The Countryside Alliance is using the findings to renew its call for what it describes as a “rural reset” in government policy.

Among the measures being targeted are inheritance tax changes affecting family farms, higher employer National Insurance costs, rising wage bills and increased competition for agricultural land.

The campaign group has also raised concerns over firearms licensing fees, betting affordability checks, proposals affecting trail hunting and game shooting, and changes to the tax treatment of double-cab pickups.

Mo Metcalf-Fisher, Director of External Affairs at the Countryside Alliance, said: “The case for a rural reset between the government and rural people couldn't be more obvious.”

He added: “These stark findings should hammer home the urgent need for the government to start legislating for rural people, not against them, while there is still time”.

The figures suggest rural and semi-rural constituencies could form an important part of the electoral battleground, although the number of closely contested seats means the picture could change as voting intentions shift before the next general election.