New data has provided stark evidence of how the UK pig sector's contraction will soon start to affect supplies going forward, as producers continue to see multiple crises such as high costs and the on-farm backlog.
Anonymised data from AgroVision, shared with the National Pig Association (NPA), confirms significant reductions in sow numbers and weaners compared with last year, with the trend accelerating in recent months.
A big proportion of the data AgroVision records on pig herd performance goes into a sample, representing about 60% of the GB herd, providing an overview of industry trends.
AgroVision recorded 373,000 weaners in April 2022, compared with 482,000 a year earlier, a huge 23% drop, continuing a downward trend since the start of the year.
The three-month rolling average shows a steady, virtually uninterrupted decline from a monthly average of 479,000 in September 2021 to 406,000 in April.
Based on services, AgroVision is forecasting further declines in weaner numbers in May and June.
AgroVision’s April 2022 figure of 181,000 sows represents a 27,000, 13%, year-on-year reduction on the April 2021 figure 208,000.
Between April and November 2021, the figure was relatively stable level at around 206,000 to 208,000 sows.
But there have been seven consecutive months of decline since 21 September, with the rate accelerating since November, including a reduction of 14,000 between February and April.
The AgroVision data suggests a 21% year-on-year drop in sow services, with 33,000 recorded in April, compared with 42,000 in April 2021.
Agrovision’s James Nesling said the company was confident the figures are representative of the wider industry.
“One or two producers might have stopped recording but, generally, those that are using the system are updating regularly as they need to be recording what they are doing.
"This is a very good sample size and the data is fairly consistent month on month,” he said.
Responding, the NPA said the data should send out a message to the supply chain and government about the 'huge impact' of the ongoing crisis on pig production capacity.
NPA chief executive Zoe Davies said: “At a time when food security is under the spotlight, we do not want to see our production capacity eroded to the point where we are almost entirely reliant on imports.
“That is why we continue to call for all parts of the supply chain to play their part in putting prices up and for the government to provide some proper support, so we can stem this decline in UK pork production.”
She also highlighted recent analysis showing how some supermarket chains and retailers are currently doing more than others to help.
“It is time for the whole supply to pull together to secure our future supplies of British pork,” Ms Davies added.
