New Zealand-Ewe numbers alarmingly low.
Sharply higher prices at ewe fairs highlight a stock shortage, not a rebuilding of sheep flocks, say industry leaders.
"Sadly, no" was the response from Federated Farmers meat and fibre chairman Bruce Wills when the question was put to him.
"What we’re seeing is a slowing of the decline in numbers but too many capital stock are still being killed because of poor profitability in sheep farming."
The Wills farm near Napier is one where ewe numbers are being reduced.
Meat & Wool New Zealand economic service expects breeding ewe numbers this year to be about half a million down on last year’s figure of 23.4 million, says executive director Rob Davison. He hopes more favourable weather conditions will lead to a higher lambing rate, and overall sheep numbers will be able to be held at close to current levels.
One big difference this season is that ewe lambs have generally been retained on farms, compared with the big kill numbers last year, when many farmers were in despair over very low values and widespread drought. Lamb values are much higher this season and drought conditions are more localised, though still serious in affected areas.
However, the kill for adult ewes in the North Island this season is 14% ahead of last year, and nationally the kill numbers are up 6.5%.
Wills said the reality was that some farmers were buying ewes as replacements, not to increase flock sizes, and prices had to be put in perspective.
"I was at Stortford Lodge a few weeks ago, and ewe prices were on average double last year’s, but last year they were only $30. Farmers were losing heavily at those prices and this year is just a return to more normal levels.
"We’ve got a long way to go before we see rebuilding."
Davison said the ewe kill was earlier this season because of last season’s big lamb kill having priority for processing space at meat plants. This explained the high figures so far, and the kill was expected to taper off in the next three weeks or so. "We’d be concerned if it keeps up at this high rate."
A leading central Southland farmer and consultant, Keith Milne, said a rebuilding of sorts was happening, but the best that could be hoped for this year was a stabilising of sheep numbers. "We’re getting good two-tooth ewe prices, but that’s because so many ewe lambs and hoggets were killed last year. That’s what’s driving the two-tooth price, they’re just not there."
He said prices also looked good this year because the big number of clearing sales last year - when farmers quit high quality breeding ewes in their rush to go dairying - had pushed prices to very low levels. There were fewer clearing sales now, and ewes were being snapped up.
Milne believes there will be more lambs born this year, helped by a big increase in hoggets being bred from, compared to very low numbers last year.
Davison is also expecting an improvement in the lambing percentage rate, from last year’s disappointing 113% national average, to up around the usual 120%.
"Last year’s lambing was appalling because of the drought’s impact on ewe condition, but if we can get a more normal autumn this year then it should be much better."
Wills said there were still several areas of the North Island’s east coast where ewes would be flushed on dusty paddocks before going out to the rams, not a good start for the lambing season.
Sheep farming areas of Waikato, King Country, and Taranaki, hurt by drought last year, were having a good summer.
A Meat & Wool economic service survey tallied total sheep numbers of 33.9 million in June last year, the lowest level since 1950. The number fell from 38.5 million in 2007. The peak number was 70 million in 1982.
Breeding ewe numbers (two-tooth and older) fell to 23.4 million from 26.1 million in 2007, and the number of ewe hoggets bred from fell to 1.5 million from 2.5m in 2007. The survey indicated that 30.9 million lambs were tailed in the year ended June 30, 2008, down 6% on the 2007 year figures.
