Pressures on Welsh flock numbers appear to have lifted slightly in recent months after new survey results reveal that fears over input costs are easing.
There has been a considerable improvement in farmer intentions, according to a new survey, despite a Welsh government survey from June showing a notable fall in flock numbers.
The improvement is seen in Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales’ (HCC) phase 2 of its farmer intentions survey, which was completed by sheep and beef producers.
Some 75% of farms are now expected to maintain or increase stock numbers in the short term, according to HCC's results, and therefore lamb numbers are estimated to stabilise somewhat from the low recorded in June.
Analysts at HCC believe this to reflect a positive shift in confidence compared with the same time last year, when uncertainty over high input costs influenced 43% of farmers to consider reducing stocking levels during phase 1 of the survey, conducted in September 2022.
During phase 1, farmer worries were prominent. Due to high farm input costs, it was anticipated that there would be higher culling rates and therefore fewer ewes for breeding during the time that followed.
Along with fewer breeding ewes, scanning rates were also reportedly low at the start of this year due to poor weather and ewe conditions.
These worries were reflected in the results of the latest June survey - the Welsh government’s survey of agriculture - which showed the number of lambs on the ground aged under one year was at 4.1million head as of 2023.
This was down 10% on the year, and the total number of sheep and lambs stood at 8.7 million head, down some 7% on the year.
This figure is the lowest number of sheep and lambs recorded since 2009 when numbers reached 8.2 million head.
Glesni Phillips, HCC’s intelligence executive, said: “While the Wales figures, like those in England and Scotland, reflect quite a dip in flock numbers, the results from phase 2 are considerably more positive than they were 12 months ago.
"This would suggest that sheep numbers should stabilize somewhat further down the line," she explained.
The Welsh government survey findings mean the 8.7m Welsh flock was 26% below Wales’ peak of 11.8m head in 1999.
2023 figures from England show the flock declined by 3.2% year-on-year to 14.5m head, the lowest recorded population since 2011, while in Scotland sheep numbers fell by 2% when compared with the 5-year average to 6.6m head.
Ms Phillips said HCC’s phase 2 of the survey had indicated lamb producer concerns over input costs had been overtaken by other challenges within the sector such as changes to direct payments, agricultural policy and government support schemes.
Looking at the beef sector, the survey revealed a similar positive stocking position for beef farmers, where 65% now say they will maintain or improve stocking levels compared to last year’s 47% considering reducing stock.
The Welsh government's June survey data shows there was a small one per cent fall in the Welsh herd size, with total cattle and calves falling from 1.13m to 1.12m head.
The beef breeding herd was down 4.7% on the year to 149,290 head, and the dairy breeding herd was down 0.5% to 254,700 head.
Ms Phillips said: “The dairy breeding herd had recorded three consecutive years of increased numbers before recording this small fall in 2023, with beef producers stating that farm input costs continue to put pressure on their business intentions."
