Scottish lamb prices top £4/kg as demand surges and supply tightens

Scottish lamb prices have surged past £4/kg this spring, running around 20% higher than last year and more than 35% above the five-year average, as strong seasonal demand and tight global supply drive the market higher.

After a softer start in January, prices rose sharply through February, fuelled by Ramadan demand and strengthening further as Easter approached.

The uplift has delivered a welcome boost for farmgate returns, with producers benefiting from improved prices despite more lambs coming forward to market.

Throughput has increased notably in recent weeks. Lamb numbers in the first 11 weeks of 2026 were up 8% year-on-year, reflecting a slightly larger crop, slower marketing earlier in the season and firm store lamb trade.

However, despite the rise in numbers, overall supply remains tight due to a smaller 2025 lamb crop across Great Britain — helping to underpin the current price strength.

Exports have continued to support the market.

Sheep meat shipments rose by 9% across 2025, with strong demand from key EU markets including France and Belgium.

That momentum has carried into 2026, with January export volumes again up 9% year-on-year and around 95% of trade heading to the EU.

Imports have also increased, reaching a seven-year high in January.

This has been driven largely by a sharp rise in volumes from Australia, while New Zealand shipments have eased slightly but still account for a significant share of supply.

Despite this, the global picture remains one of constrained supply.

Production across the EU continues to decline, Australia is believed to have passed its cyclical peak, and New Zealand’s modest growth is expected to stabilise rather than expand output.

Together, these trends are expected to keep global availability tight, providing ongoing support for prices.

Wider economic conditions remain mixed.

Energy costs and geopolitical tensions continue to pose risks, although currency movements have supported export competitiveness.

Consumer demand has held up well, with strong winter spending on red meat helping support lamb prices even as higher costs have weighed on volumes.

Quality Meat Scotland said the early-year performance reflects the strength of the sector under pressure.

Market insights manager Iain Macdonald said: “The early strength we’re seeing in lamb prices and auction throughput highlights the resilience of Scotland’s sheep sector in the face of tight global supply and a challenging economic climate.”

He added that while risks remain, the outlook is encouraging.

“While risks remain - particularly around energy markets, currency shifts and household spending power - the strong seasonal demand and firm export interest put the industry on a solid footing as we move further into 2026.”

With prices high, demand firm and supply constrained, Scotland’s lamb sector enters the rest of the year in a strong position — although wider economic pressures are likely to shape how the market develops in the months ahead.