UK dairy farmers lose 240m litres of milk in record-hot summer

UK dairy farmers delivered more than 240 million fewer litres of milk than expected between May and August as record heat and drought put production under severe pressure, according to new analysis.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates the shortfall was worth more than £83 million to farmers and amounted to over four days of normal summer milk production.

The missing volume would have been enough to fill more than one billion school milk cartons.

ECIU found that on 87 days during the summer, deliveries fell further below their expected level than on the corresponding date in any year between 2008 and 2025.

The pattern became more pronounced as the season progressed, with 25 days recorded in June followed by every day in July and August.

Tom Cantillon, Senior Analyst at the ECIU, said: “For months, UK dairy farms produced below a normal summer, and by August the scale of the impact was regularly worse than anything seen in 18 years.”

He added: “The missing £83 million from farmers’ pockets has gone in a year when many were already milking at a loss.”

ECIU said extreme heat and drought were major contributors to the reduction in output. It also pointed to higher input costs linked to the Iran war and industry efforts to avoid a repeat of last year’s oversupply.

The effects could continue well beyond the summer, with some farmers already using winter forage earlier than planned.

Grass growth for the season to 4 September stood at 86% of the 2019-24 average, according to the analysis.

ECIU estimated the lost grass growth was equivalent to enough feed for the national cattle herd for two months. With around four-fifths of a normal growing season already over, it said the deficit was unlikely to be recovered.

Mr Cantillon said: “The costs don’t stop now that the rain has come. A second bad year for grass has pushed farmers into their winter forage early, with feed prices to follow.”

He said farms needed support to improve resilience through measures including shade, trees and water, while arguing that increasingly severe summers would continue without reductions in emissions.

Some farmers are already supplementing forage stores with hay, silage and other feed, leaving businesses more exposed to prices during the winter.

ECIU said hay prices rose by 83% from one December to the next last winter following drought conditions, raising concerns that another sharp increase could follow.

Gloucestershire dairy and beef farmer Debbie Wilkins said the summer had been difficult, with milk production on her farm falling significantly.

Comparisons were complicated by the establishment of a new herd, but lower-than-normal stocking levels had allowed the business to make more silage than otherwise would have been possible.

“That has been really important because the cows have been eating full winter rations in the middle of summer, and even with the recent grass growth they're really only going out to stretch their legs,” she said.

Mrs Wilkins said the farm had produced enough feed for winter, but housing cattle created considerably more expense than grazing.

“The costs pile up when you have to bring the cows indoors, and the loss of milk production compounds the issue.”

ECIU said there were also signs that forage pressure was contributing to difficult herd-management decisions, citing reports of increased cattle culling in drought-affected areas.

GB cull cow prices have fallen by almost 10% in recent weeks, while throughput has risen by 16%.

Selling breeding animals early can reduce winter feed requirements, but ECIU warned that it could also lead to fewer calves in future and contribute to the longer-term contraction of the UK cattle herd.

Leicestershire dairy farmer Rather Grice described the summer as “very challenging”, saying producers had faced higher operating costs alongside weak milk prices.

“Dairy farmers have been hit by a double whammy of significant increases in operational costs, while milk prices remained really low as a hangover from the enormous volumes of milk produced last year and at the start of this year,” he said.

Some farms were forced to house cows to protect them from the extreme heat, increasing labour and operating costs.

Mr Grice said his cows were brought indoors in mid-August and were only able to return outside recently as grass growth began to recover.

He said greater climate uncertainty meant dairy farmers increasingly needed to build larger forage reserves to prepare for drought while also planning for severe winter rainfall.

Although last year’s record milk production demonstrated the productive potential of the UK herd, the immediate concern for many businesses is the coming winter.

With forage already being used on some farms and feed reserves under pressure, the financial consequences of the summer could continue well beyond the end of the grazing season.