UK sheep meat sector challenges to grow for H2 2024, AHDB says

Retail and foodservice demand for lamb will remain pressured by consumer budgets, AHDB says
Retail and foodservice demand for lamb will remain pressured by consumer budgets, AHDB says

After surging prices in the first half of 2024, the sheep meat sector will now be challenged due to falling production and tight budgets impacting consumer demand.

This is according to a new report by AHDB, which expects total sheep meat production to decline by 3% to 278,000 tonnes in 2024.

A fall in the lamb crop impacting on slaughter levels of new season lambs is due to drive the decrease.

The report also highlights that, despite a strong start to 2024, retail and foodservice demand for lamb will remain pressured by consumer budgets with consumption set to fall by 1% compared to 2023.

Isabelle Shohet, AHDB analyst, said: “The sheep meat sector will continue being put under pressure in the second half of 2024 with consumer budgets remaining tight and an anticipated reduction in retail promotion of lamb.”

Domestic lamb domestic prices may be supported for the remainder of 2024 by an anticipated fall in imports, coupled with further opportunities to export UK lamb to the EU, the report says.

A drop in prices are being seen at the moment due to the supply coming through of new season lambs, AHDB explains.

The sector is also past the typical peaks of demand for the year, such as Easter, which added strength to prices.

Ms Shohet said: "We are unlikely to see continued strong consumer demand we’ve seen in the first half of the year, and supplies will be higher as the new season lamb crop continues to come forward.

"However, prices will remain elevated when compared to recent years.”

The report notes that imports have grown in the first quarter of 2024 but are expected to slow for the remainder of the year.

Exports have seen a slight yearly decline in the first quarter of 2024 and are expected to remain in decline given our falling domestic production.