United Kingdom-Beef Prices look good for 2009.

Latest estimates from EBLEX point to a positive 2009 for most beef producers – on top of a year of the best prices ever recorded.

Prices in 2008 averaged just under 260p kw deadweight, figures from AHDB Meat Services show, a good 26% up on 2007 and more than 60% – or £1/kg – ahead of 1998.

"As predicted this time last year, this welcome strengthening of farmgate prices resulted from a continued decline in annual slaughterings, coupled with increased exports and almost static import levels," says EBLEX in its latest annual market outlook.

It points out that in the coming year prime cattle slaughterings are forecast to fall below two million head for the first time ever as both the national dairy and suckler herds continue to contract.

At the same time, cow slaughterings are predicted to drop off slightly from their post-BSE peak of some 560,000 head in 2008 due to the decline in eligible animals remaining on-farm.

Some recovery in average carcase weights is expected from lows of the past year as a result of better 2009 grass-growing conditions and lower feed costs.

Even so, overall UK beef and veal supplies are expected to fall back to around the 850,000 tonne level of 2006.

"Although domestic beef consumption seems certain to be negatively affected by the recession, a continued growth in mince sales is forecast to help offset declining demand for steak and roasting joints," says EBLEX.

"As a result, annual consumption in the coming year is only forecast to fall back to 2005 levels, staying comfortably above the one million tonne mark."

Nor is there much prospect of Brazilian beef returning to the European market in any significant quantity for at least the first half of the year so imports are thought likely to remain at a similar level to last year and, most importantly, in a mix that exerts altogether less downward pressure on the market than in the past.

EBLEX is also cautiously optimistic that the continued weakness of sterling against the euro will enable UK exports to grow still further in 2009, with plenty of headroom remaining available before they reach anywhere near pre-BSE levels of over 270,000 tonnes per year.