United Kingdom-Outlook good for beef farmers.

DESPITE the recession, 2009 market conditions continue to look positive for most Westcountry beef producers, according to the latest annual outlook from the English Beef and Lamb Executive (Eblex). And this following the best year’s prices ever recorded.

At an average of just under 260ppk deadweight, AHDB Meat Services records show finished cattle prices in 2008 were a good 26 per cent up on 2007 and more than 60 per cent – or fully £1 per kilo – ahead of 1998.

Eblex economics manager Mark Topliff commented: "As predicted this time last year, this welcome strengthening of farmgate prices resulted from a continued decline in annual slaughterings, coupled with increased exports and almost static import levels."

He said that for the coming year prime cattle slaughterings were forecast to fall below two million head for the first time ever, as both the national dairy and suckler herds continued to contract. At the same time, cow slaughterings are predicted to drop off slightly from their post-BSE peak of around 560,000 head in 2008, due to the decline in eligible animals remaining on-farm.

Some recovery in average carcass weights was expected from lows of the past year, as a result of better 2009 grass-growing conditions and lower feed costs. Even so, overall UK beef and veal supplies were expected to fall back to around the 850,000 tonne level of 2008 margin-bottom He added: "Although domestic beef consumption seems certain to be negatively affected by the recession, a continued growth in mince sales is forecast to help offset declining demand for steak and roasting joints.

"As a result, annual consumption in the coming year is only forecast to fall back to 2005 levels, staying comfortably above the one million tonne mark."

With no prospect of Brazilian beef returning to the European market in any significant quantity for at least the first half of the year, imports are thought likely to remain at a similar level to last year and, most importantly, in a mix that exerts altogether less downward pressure on the market than in the past.

Also leaving Eblex cautiously optimistic for the year ahead is the likelihood that the continued weakness of sterling against the euro will enable exports to grow still further in 2009.