United States-The pork industry.

UNITED STATES-THE PORK TRADE.

The global spread of swine flu that’s sparked import bans on US pork may send hog futures down another 9.5%, creating a price drop similar to the one for cattle after the discovery of mad cow disease in 2003, said Christian Mayer at Northstar Commodity Investments.

Charts show cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange plunged 17% in the month after December 23, 2003, when the US disclosed its first case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, also known as BSE. Hog futures already are down 7.5% since the World Health Organisation reported swine-flu deaths in Mexico on April 24.

"When you hear ’swine flu,’ automatically people think about not eating pork, so other countries have banned our exports," Mayer, a market adviser for Northstar in Minneapolis , said in an interview. "That’s still the fear, that the demand will just not be there."

Hog futures for June settlement may drop to 60 US cents a pound in Chicago - down from Tuesday’s close of 66.3 US cents - as countries including China and Russia ban imports of pork from some US states, Mayer said. That would leave hogs down 16% since the WHO announcement last week.

In 2003, after the case of mad cow disease was announced, top importers of US beef including Japan and South Korea banned the meat. US beef exports plunged 82% to 460.3 million pounds in 2004, US Department of Agriculture data show. Exports last year totaled 1.888 billion pounds (0.8564 billion kilograms), still 25% less than in 2003.

China has banned imports of pork from five U.S. states, citing concern for swine flu in North America , the USDA said Tuesday. China , including Hong Kong, was the second-largest customer of US pork last year. Hong Kong still is allowing the meat. Russia , the fourth-largest importer of US pork, halted shipments from 13 US states. Indonesia and the Philippines , the eighth-largest importer, banned all US pork.