Spring barley yields head for record low as harvest struggles

Spring barley yields are on course for their lowest level since records began in 1999, as harvest 2026 continues to deliver poor results across key UK cereal crops.

With 54% of the spring barley area harvested, average yields are around 26% below the five-year average, according to the latest AHDB figures.

Oats are also struggling, with yields currently 21% below the five-year average and, if the trend continues, heading towards a 46-year low.

Around 85% of the UK wheat crop has now been harvested, with average yields still 13% below the five-year average despite generally good quality.

Hopes that results would improve as combines moved into Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland have so far failed to materialise, suggesting the impact of the difficult growing season has been widespread.

Winter barley has fared better. With 98% of the crop cut, yields remain close to the five-year average, although AHDB said there was still considerable variation in both yield and quality.

Quality in spring barley and oats has also been highly variable, making it difficult to establish a meaningful national average.

Oilseed rape is the clear exception to the wider trend.

With 95% of the crop harvested, average oilseed rape yields are currently 18% above the five-year average.

Harvest remains exceptionally early overall, although rainfall has slowed progress in parts of Scotland and northern England.

AHDB said prolonged hot and dry weather was behind much of the variation being seen between crops, regions and individual farms.

Helen Plant, AHDB Senior Cereals & Oilseeds Analyst, said: “The disappointing yields we are seeing are a consequence of another year where rainfall from spring onwards has been in short supply. Crop moisture levels are higher further north but yields generally remain disappointing and highly variable.”

She said differences in soil type, moisture retention, drilling dates, organic fertiliser use, preceding crops and varieties were also contributing to the variation in performance.

AHDB had hoped the national picture would improve as harvest moved into areas less affected by the prolonged hot and dry conditions.

Anthony Hopkins, AHDB’s Director of Cereals and Oilseeds, said: “We had hoped that average yields might improve as harvest progressed into areas less affected by the prolonged hot and dry weather. So far, the evidence suggests that hasn’t happened.”

The weak results are also intensifying concerns over the financial position of arable businesses after successive difficult harvests and continued pressure on margins.

Hopkins said: “While there are exceptions – particularly the more positive picture for oilseed rape – this is another difficult harvest for many growers.”

He added: “The cumulative effect of successive poor harvests will be placing immense financial pressure on many arable businesses right now at a time when margins were already under strain.”