British farming faces a defining moment as volatility, policy uncertainty and climate pressures force the sector to rethink how it survives — and how it grows.
A new report linked to the 2026 Oxford Farming Conference warns that UK agriculture must move decisively away from short-term survival thinking and adopt a mission-led, opportunity-focused approach if it is to remain viable in the decades ahead.
Titled UK Agriculture: Grasping the Opportunities, the report argues that incremental change is no longer enough in a world shaped by instability and rapid disruption.
The analysis explores what a positive future for UK agriculture could look like — and what interventions are needed to achieve it. The report was supported by a donation from the Frank Parkinson Agricultural Trust.
Dr Louise Manning, who authored the report based on structured discussions with 25 farming leaders, said contributors were united in their view that the sector must adapt quickly. “Change is not optional,” she said, adding that to succeed “UK agriculture must become agile, robust and opportunity driven”.
The report frames today’s operating environment as a ‘BANI’ world — one that is brittle, anxious, non-linear and incomprehensible — shaped by shifting global trade dynamics, geopolitical conflict, Brexit, public debt pressures and increasingly disruptive weather. It argues that this combination has made traditional risk management approaches less effective.
“In a BANI world,” Dr Manning said, “traditional approaches to managing risk no longer work.” She said farming businesses need to build robustness, embrace non-linear change and make greater use of data to navigate complexity, rather than relying on past experience as a guide to the future.
Central to the report is a call for a clearer, longer-term direction for agriculture. It argues that a more resilient sector depends on consistent, location-aware policy, profitable and innovative farm businesses, and recognition that health and wellbeing are fundamental to long-term success.
“The UK needs a clear, long-term strategy for agriculture,” Dr Manning said, “that defines the kind of sector we want in 20- or 30-years’ time”.
The report describes a mission-led future as one in which farming businesses are confident, data-driven and focused on delivering value across the supply chain, whether through collaboration, diversification, smarter use of assets or investment in people and skills.
It suggests that businesses which understand their purpose and adapt proactively are better placed to retain value and demonstrate their long-term viability.
It also argues that many farms will need to revisit business planning and execution in light of ongoing economic and policy pressures. Dr Manning said this requires setting a clear direction and creating “an environment of curiosity, agility and courage in decision-making”.
From its discussions, the report identifies three dominant mindsets currently present in UK agriculture: a ‘doomloop’ mindset characterised by pessimism, a ‘drawbridge’ mindset focused on protection, and a ‘growth opportunity-driven’ mindset.
The analysis calls for a decisive shift towards the latter. “Mindsets inform thinking,” Dr Manning said, adding that the sector needs to move away from defensiveness and towards collaboration and innovation.
Key enablers highlighted include better knowledge sharing, greater use of technology and data, and exploring alternative uses for farm assets to strengthen resilience. Timely, tailored market intelligence is also seen as critical to more agile decision-making.
Looking further ahead, the report suggests the businesses that will shape UK farming in 20 to 30 years may not yet exist. “Some of the agri-businesses that will transform UK farming by 2040 or 2050 probably don’t exist yet,” Dr Manning said, arguing that this makes investment in skills, systems and adaptive thinking essential.
The report concludes that a thriving agricultural sector will depend on modern, flexible education and training focused on business management, investment, risk and innovation, alongside creating opportunities for new entrants.
“Agriculture’s future depends on its people,” Dr Manning said, pointing to the importance of supporting the ‘New Gen’ and ‘Next Gen’ into the industry.
At its core, the report urges policymakers, businesses and individuals to accept uncertainty as a constant and to act with confidence rather than caution.
Without a clearer sense of direction, it warns, the sector risks remaining reactive rather than resilient at a time when the pressures facing UK agriculture show little sign of easing.
