UK arable farmers are facing an estimated £828 million hit to revenues after one of the worst harvests on record, with new analysis warning that climate-driven extremes are pushing profitability to breaking point.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) says crop production has been severely reduced by the hottest spring and summer ever recorded, compounded by drought.
The findings come ahead of Defra data due next week, expected to confirm provisional figures showing the UK harvest matching the second-worst performance already reported for England.
Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at ECIU, said it had been “another torrid year for many farmers in the UK”, marked by a shift from saturated soils to extreme heat.
He said growers were “left counting the costs of climate change”, with four-fifths now worried about their ability to make a living as conditions worsen.
Lancaster stressed that confidence in the sector is “at rock bottom”, arguing that farmers urgently need better support to cope with climate shocks and build resilience.
He said delays to relaunching green farming schemes were “the last thing the industry needs”, adding that agriculture must shift to greener, more resilient methods.
The ECIU estimates the value of production for five key arable crops at £3.4 billion in 2025 — down 20% on the 10-year average, equivalent to an £828 million loss.
This follows major losses in 2024, when extreme winter rainfall prevented farmers from accessing flooded land to drill and manage crops. Including 2020 — the worst UK harvest on record — extreme-weather-related revenue losses for arable farms have now exceeded £2 billion this decade.
Essex arable farmer David Lord said the cumulative impact of extreme seasons was threatening the viability of crop production. “With costs rising faster than prices, I’m not sure how many more years like this we can take as an industry,” he said.
He explained that repeated years of heavy rain, heat and drought were eroding confidence in investing in new crops. Green farming schemes had been “a vital lifeline”, offering resilience and cashflow support, but with the schemes currently closed, “too many farmers are locked out, unable to access the support they need to adapt.”
Low farmgate prices have compounded the poor 2025 harvest. Prices are now close to the long-term average after peaking in 2022, and the UK’s limited influence on global commodity markets means there has been no price uplift to offset lower production.
As a result, growers remain exposed to climate shocks. Compared with the last ‘normal’ harvest in 2023 — when prices rose sharply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — farmers stand to earn more than £1.5 billion less in revenue this year.
The analysis comes ahead of a long-awaited review into farm profitability by former NFU president Baroness Batters, expected to be published in the coming weeks.
