Heatwave adds risk after dry spring dents UK crops

A dry spring and recent heatwave have dented UK crop prospects, but AHDB says many winter crops still offer grounds for cautious harvest optimism.

The final AHDB Crop Development Report of 2026 shows prolonged dry weather through April and much of May caused moisture stress and uneven crop development across many areas.

Rainfall late in May brought some relief, but recovery has varied sharply depending on region, soil type and crop. Lighter soils and parts of eastern England have been among the areas most affected, while the recent heatwave has added further risk ahead of harvest.

AHDB said final yields are now likely to depend heavily on local rainfall and remaining soil moisture.

The report’s key message is that winter crop ratings have slipped since April but remain ahead of the difficult 2025 season, while spring crops have faced greater pressure from dry seedbeds and limited rainfall during establishment.

AHDB rated 64% of winter wheat, 62% of winter barley, 71% of winter oats and 78% of winter oilseed rape as good or excellent.

Winter oilseed rape was the strongest-rated major crop, while winter oats showed greater resilience than wheat and barley. Disease pressure remains relatively low, although yellow rust continues to require close monitoring in some areas.

Helen Plant, AHDB lead analyst for cereals and oilseeds, said: “The dry conditions through April and much of May have clearly taken a toll on crop development, particularly for spring crops and winter cereals with limited moisture reserves.”

She said late rainfall had helped some areas, but had not been enough to reverse the earlier damage everywhere.

She added: “Variability remains a key feature of this season.”

Despite the pressure from dry weather, AHDB said most winter crops were still ahead of last year’s position at the same point. Ms Plant said this reflected the benefit of a strong start during autumn and early spring.

She said: “As harvest approaches, yield outcomes will depend heavily on local weather conditions and soil moisture availability, but there remains reason for cautious optimism across much of the UK.”

Regional differences remain a defining feature of the 2026 season.

England has generally seen the greatest impact from dry weather, particularly on lighter soils and in eastern areas, while crops in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have benefited from more favourable moisture levels.

Spring crop ratings were weaker overall, with spring wheat rated 33% good or excellent, spring barley 55%, spring oats 42% and spring oilseed rape just 13%.

Spring oilseed rape remained under the most pressure, with 7% rated very poor, 2% poor, 77% fair and 13% good.

The AHDB Crop Development Report combines weather observations, crop assessments and agronomic intelligence gathered across the UK by RSK ADAS.

The latest condition data was captured up to Monday 22 June 2026, with AHDB noting that smaller crop categories such as spring wheat and spring oilseed rape carry greater uncertainty.