UK crop ratings fall after dry spring pressure

UK crop ratings have fallen after weeks of dry weather, with AHDB warning that the next fortnight could be critical for yield potential.

The latest AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds crop development report says prolonged dry conditions through April and much of May have placed pressure on both winter and spring crops.

Although rainfall later in May brought some relief, recovery has been patchy and moisture deficits remain in some regions, particularly on lighter soils.

Winter wheat is now rated 64% good or excellent, down from 74% in April, while winter barley has fallen from 70% to 62%.

Winter oats have dropped from 81% to 71%, while winter oilseed rape is rated 78% good or excellent, down from 84% last month.

AHDB said oilseed rape crops continued to show good yield potential, despite the month-on-month decline.

The levy board added that wheat and barley conditions remained ahead of the past two seasons.

Spring crops have faced greater challenges, with establishment and early development affected by moisture stress.

Conditions are weakest in parts of England, especially on lighter soils, while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are generally performing better.

AHDB warned that the next two to three weeks would be crucial in determining final yield potential.

While fewer crops are currently rated poor or very poor compared with last year, many remain in fair condition.

The report said this leaves scope for improvement if further rainfall arrives soon.

However, recent high temperatures have added to crop stress.

Visible leaf rolling in wheat suggests the benefits of late-May rainfall may be short-lived.

Helen Plant, AHDB lead analyst for cereals and oilseeds, said the dry spring had clearly affected crop development.

“The dry conditions through April and much of May have clearly taken a toll on crop development, particularly for spring crops and winter cereals with limited moisture reserves,” she said.

“While recent rainfall has helped in some areas, it hasn’t been enough to fully reverse earlier impacts, and variability across regions remains a key feature of this season.”

Ms Plant said the coming weeks would be decisive for yield prospects.

“The next few weeks will be critical,” she said.

“With many crops currently rated in ‘fair’ condition, there is still potential to support yields if further rainfall arrives, but the window for recovery—especially for winter cereals—is narrowing.”

Despite the recent fall in ratings, AHDB data shows winter wheat remains well above last year, when just 36% of the crop was rated good or excellent in May.

Winter barley is also ahead of the 48% recorded last year, while winter oats are above the 52% seen in May 2025.

Winter oilseed rape is also rated more strongly than in the previous two years.

However, the dry start to the season comes as farm businesses remain under financial pressure.

Input costs are still elevated, with fertiliser prices rising sharply.

Forward feed wheat prices for harvest 2026 are only around 5% higher year-on-year.

Without sufficient rainfall to support yields, AHDB warned there could be further pressure on farm profitability and cash flow.

This could also influence cropping decisions for harvest 2027.

There are early signs of possible relief, with forecasts suggesting more unsettled weather in some regions.

AHDB said its final 2026 crop development report will be published on 26 June.