UK farming exposed to fertiliser shocks, new report warns

A new report has warned that the UK’s heavy reliance on imported fertilisers leaves farming exposed to geopolitical shocks, with disruption in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year sending prices higher within hours.

The analysis, published by the National Preparedness Commission, highlights how quickly global markets can react to instability, underlining the fragility of supply routes that UK agriculture depends on.

The warning has direct implications for farmers, who rely heavily on fertiliser to maintain crop yields and grass growth for livestock.

Farmers are already feeling the pressure, with rising input costs and falling returns creating a renewed financial squeeze.

According to Andersons, agricultural input inflation has risen to 7.6% annually as of March 2026, well above general inflation (3.0%) and food inflation (3.2%).

At the same time, farm output prices have fallen by 6.5% year-on-year, leaving producers facing a clear “cost of farming” squeeze.

The disruption linked to the Iran conflict, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global oil and gas — is continuing to push input costs higher.

The report, The Strategic Geography of Fertilisers: Implications for UK Preparedness, was authored by Antony So and Professor Tim Lang of the Centre for Food Policy at City, University of London.

It identifies three key pressure points: uneven global supply, corporate concentration, and reliance on vulnerable shipping routes.

Fertilisers remain essential to modern agriculture, yet the UK imports more than three times the amount it produces domestically, leaving the sector highly dependent on external supply.

Nitrogen fertiliser prices are closely linked to global energy markets, making them particularly sensitive to gas price spikes, as seen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, phosphorus and potassium supplies depend on mined resources concentrated in a small number of countries, including Morocco, Canada, Russia and Belarus.

Recent geopolitical tensions have underlined how easily these supply chains can be disrupted.

Corporate concentration adds further strain, with a small number of companies dominating global fertiliser production.

This gives major firms significant influence over supply and pricing, with parts of the market described as a “duopoly” by policymakers.

Much of the world’s fertiliser supply must also pass through narrow maritime chokepoints such as the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz, where disruption can rapidly drive up costs and delay shipments.

For the UK, the implications are particularly stark.

The country has no meaningful reserves of key nutrients such as phosphate and potash, increasing reliance on imports moving through these vulnerable routes.

Options for the UK include building stockpiles, allowing market forces to dictate supply, or subsidising fertiliser costs — though each presents economic and political challenges.

A longer-term shift could involve reducing dependence on synthetic fertilisers, with greater emphasis on lower-input and organic farming systems.

The report warns fertiliser supply is now a central issue for UK food security — and one the sector can no longer afford to overlook.