Another bumper rape crop predicted

Experts are predicting that next season's (05/06) oilseed rape crop could be higher than this season's record crop, despite lower prices.

At the HGCA/PGRO Oilseeds & Pulses conference on Wednesday, HGCA market analysis Josh Dadd said that analysts are predicting an increase in EU plantings of around 4%-5%.

"So far the weather has been conducive to good yields so it could well be that we have a large crop next year," said Josh Dadd. "This comes on the back of an increased global oilseed crop in 2004 and an expected bumper crop from South America, primarily Brazil and Argentina."

The EU currently has a surplus of 1.9 million tonnes, which either needs to be exported or carried over into 05/06. To date, the EU has exported very little and much will depend on the differential between EU and global prices.

"Key to the equation will be China and India. Both are major importers but this year the demand from them has been less than expected," said Josh Dadd. "As the crop next year is expected to be larger, we need demand from those markets to pick up and return to their normal growth patterns."

The EU bio-fuels directive, which indicates that 2% of all road fuels should be from renewable resources by the end of 2005, would help reduce any surplus. According to Peter Smith, commercial manager refined oil at Cargill, by the end of this year the EU is expected to be producing 4 million tonnes of bio-fuel. In 2004, the production capacity was 2.25 million tonnes.

"The market for rape oil has steadily increased over the past few years, most of the demand is from the non-food and industrial sectors, particularly in Germany. Around 20% of the EU crop goes into bio-diesel," added Josh Dadd.

In order to respond to the increase in demand, growers will need to tackle changing agronomic conditions. As well as a number of potential new varieties, the larger crop area and expected higher yields will increase the disease pressure and could alter rotations.

To help growers address these problems, HGCA has published Oilseed rape

- a growers' guide. The Guide will help growers plan, grow, market and promote oilseed rape successfully.