Prospects for the UK’s 2026 winter crops are looking “very good”, according to AHDB’s latest crop development report, which shows strong establishment across all major cereals and oilseed rape.
The November assessment reveals that drilling is virtually complete, with only around 3% of the planned winter wheat area left to plant. Most crops have emerged, and many have developed quickly thanks to favourable conditions this autumn.
As of 24 November, AHDB figures show that 83% of winter wheat, 89% of winter barley, 87% of winter oats and 82% of winter oilseed rape are rated in good or excellent condition. These ratings indicate crops with normal or better-than-normal yield potential.
The picture is in, stark contrast to last autumn when prolonged wet weather delayed drilling and stunted early development. In November 2024, 18% of winter wheat crops were still unplanted or had yet to emerge, and only 44% were judged to be in good or excellent condition. Many crops had also struggled through the intensely wet conditions of 2023.
This season, growers have benefited from improved drilling windows and, in some cases, a significant carryover of nitrogen following fertiliser applications between April and June, which may have contributed to rapid early growth.
AHDB says crop condition ratings are now close to levels last seen in November 2022, a season that went on to deliver strong yields.
Helen Plant, AHDB senior analyst for cereals and oilseeds, said: “Overall, crop potential for harvest 2026 looks promising, and there is hope that higher yields will help offset current low prices.
"However, it’s important to remember that farmers have experienced two exceedingly difficult financial years and low margins remain a challenge, with depressed malting and milling premiums adding further pressure.”
The findings were compiled for AHDB by RSK ADAS Ltd and reflect crop conditions up to 24 November. The next report is due on 27 March 2026.
