A parched spring has left UK crops under stress, with key cereals already showing signs of reduced yield and farmers bracing for a challenging harvest.
This is according to the latest analysis from AHDB and RSK ADAS Ltd, which warns that the prolonged spell of dry weather has put considerable strain on crop development.
Both winter and spring-sown crops have been affected, with national crop condition ratings for key cereals—including winter wheat, winter barley, and spring barley—falling sharply since April.
As of late May, only 36% of winter wheat crops were rated in good or excellent condition, a significant drop from 60% just one month earlier.
The findings, which cover data up to 26 May 2025, highlight the extensive effects of the warm, dry weather experienced throughout April and much of May.
Rapid crop development—up to two weeks ahead of usual in some areas—has coincided with poor nutrient uptake and limited tillering, exacerbating the pressure on yields.
While recent rainfall has brought some much-needed moisture, its full impact is not yet reflected in the report.
AHDB and RSK ADAS said that future rainfall will play a crucial role in determining final yields and grain quality.
Helen Plant, senior analyst for cereals at AHDB, said: "Crops on lighter soils are struggling the most, with poor nitrogen uptake resulting in thinner crops and stunted growth.
"There’s no question that yield potential has taken a hit, but heavy rainfall in the final week of May brought much-needed relief and renewed optimism for many."
Significant regional variation has also been reported: spring cereals in Scotland and the South East of England have been particularly hard hit.
Elsewhere, Northern Ireland has benefited from more favourable growing conditions, with most crops reported to be in good shape.
Despite the challenging conditions, the dry weather has helped to suppress disease and weed pressure thus far.
However, as canopies remain thin and soil moisture improves, there are concerns over a possible resurgence.
Yellow rust is the primary disease risk, especially in vulnerable winter wheat varieties in the North East and East Midlands.
While aphid activity is being closely monitored, pest pressure remains low at present, according to the analysis.
Ms Plant said the coming month is expected to be pivotal: "Looking ahead is difficult and crop prospects depend heavily on future rainfall.
"For all crops, rainfall through June will be paramount in determining final yields and quality."
Earlier this week, a meeting of the National Drought Group revealed that England experienced its driest March since 1961, with April receiving only half the usual rainfall.
The Environment Agency, which sits on the group, confirmed that the North West is now officially in a drought, with a 'medium risk' issued for the whole of England.
In a significant move, Defra Secretary Steve Reed has taken control of the planning process for two major reservoir projects—the first time such intervention has been made since the 1990s.
Officials warned that without these reservoirs, the nation’s water security will remain under threat, and crucial housebuilding targets will be at risk.
