Extreme weather drives £4.8bn arable farming losses

British arable farmers could lose £4.8 billion in revenue after three consecutive harvests hit by extreme weather, with 2026 on course to be the worst season since detailed records began in 1984.

New analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape across 2024, 2025 and 2026 will be around 14.4 million tonnes below historical levels.

When inflation is taken into account, the organisation estimates the cumulative production shortfall represents around £4.8 billion in lost revenue for farmers.

ECIU projects a deficit of around 5.9 million tonnes in 2026 alone, following shortfalls of 4.3 million tonnes in 2024 and 4.2 million tonnes in 2025.

This year’s harvest has been hit by extreme heat and drought, with wheat and spring barley yields affected by high temperatures and a lack of moisture.

The Met Office has projected that summer 2026 could be the hottest on record, overtaking 2025, when drought and high temperatures also affected crop yields.

The problems follow a difficult 2024 harvest, when a wet autumn, winter and spring reduced both planted areas and yields.

Scientific studies have linked the severity of several recent extreme weather events to climate change.

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said: "Just as Britain’s arable farmers thought 2026 might bring a better harvest, this summer’s extreme heat and relentless drought has been a terrible blow that has left farmers facing the third poor harvest in a row."

He said the financial impact extended beyond arable farms, with vegetable growers, livestock businesses and companies across the wider food supply chain also facing higher costs and disruption.

Lancaster argued that measures such as improving soil health and increasing tree cover could help farms become more resilient, but warned there were limits to how much businesses could adapt.

He added: "Our farmers are now on the front line of climate change, which is taking a relentless toll on their ability to grow and harvest the crops we all depend upon."

The cumulative losses are also raising concerns about the ability of some farmers to finance next season’s crops.

The NFU has warned that pressure on farm cashflow following repeated extreme weather could leave some businesses struggling to fund drilling for the 2027 harvest.

NFU President Tom Bradshaw said one Buckinghamshire grower was £220,000 down on their usual harvest, highlighting the scale of pressure facing farm businesses.

“We’re hearing daily about the cashflow crisis facing farmers,” he said.

“Whether it’s the grower in Buckinghamshire who’s down £220,000 on their usual harvest, or the dairy farmer in Dorset spending an extra £500 a day on fodder to feed their cows, the balance sheets are not adding up.”

Martin Lines, chief executive of the Nature Friendly Farming Network and a Cambridgeshire farmer, said three difficult seasons in succession were having a severe impact on farming businesses.

"As a farmer, I’m used to ironing out the bad years with the good, but three terrible harvests in a row is just devastating for my business and the farming sector as a whole," he said.

Lines said farmers were dealing with challenges ranging from poor crop growth to shortages of grass for livestock and difficulties keeping animals cool during periods of extreme heat.

He called for greater support from government and the food supply chain to help farms reduce emissions and strengthen the resilience of domestic food production.

"We need support to reduce emissions and boost the resilience of UK food production and can’t afford that alone whilst climate change is hitting our bottom line so relentlessly," he said.

The 2026 projections are based on Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) yield estimates published in August.

Although AHDB later revised some yield estimates slightly upwards, ECIU said the broader picture remained unchanged.

With three successive poor harvests now putting pressure on farm incomes and cashflow, concern is increasingly turning to whether some growers will have the financial capacity to establish crops for 2027.