Arable farmers are staring down another bruising season as volatile yields and falling prices threaten to wipe out profits despite rapid harvest progress.
The latest AHDB Harvest Report, published on 22 August, warns of a difficult outlook for farms as extreme fluctuations in crop yields combine with falling grain prices.
Harvesting has progressed at pace this season, running well ahead of the five-year average, but for many growers the financial picture remains bleak.
Lower yields across large areas, coupled with declining prices throughout 2025, are expected to hit both profitability and cash flow.
Even those reporting stronger yields are likely to feel the squeeze from weaker markets. For farms suffering reduced yields, the financial strain will be particularly severe.
This challenging season follows another difficult year in 2024, compounding pressures on farming businesses.
The wheat harvest is now 92% complete, with average yields at 7.3t/ha – 5.4% below the five-year average (which itself includes two poor years, 2020 and 2024), and 9.1% below the 10-year average.
Despite this, quality has been encouraging, with good specific weights and strong protein levels supporting milling suitability.
The spring barley harvest has reached 68% completion. While early results from southern England were promising, outcomes further north have been more variable, with reports of crops failing to achieve malting quality due to high screenings. In Scotland, around 29% of the crop has been harvested so far.
Oats are 89% cut, with average yields of 4.8t/ha – around 10% below the five-year average. Quality is mixed, with winter oats faring better than spring oats, which have struggled with both yields and specific weights.
Winter barley and oilseed rape harvests were wrapped up earlier in August, both completed ahead of the five-year average.
Overall, harvest progress is significantly more advanced than in recent years, with many growers expected to finish up to two weeks ahead of schedule.
Helen Plant, AHDB senior analyst, said: “The 2025 harvest has been characterised by extreme variability – between farms, regions, and even within fields.
"For many, yields are well below average, though others are recording stronger results. However, across the board, lower grain prices this year will limit the financial returns.
"Coming after a difficult 2024, this is another challenging year for arable farmers. Despite this, harvest progress has been rapid, and the quality of wheat is a positive point as the season advances.”
The next AHDB Harvest Report 2025 is due to be published on 5 September.
