Heat and drought put UK on course for worst harvest since 1984

The UK could record its smallest cereals and oilseeds harvest since 1984 after drought and repeated heatwaves cut projected production by up to 2.5 million tonnes.

Analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates that combined output of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape could fall to about 19.5 million tonnes. If confirmed, that would push the 2026 harvest below the previous low recorded in 2020.

The projection remains uncertain because significant parts of several crops have yet to be harvested. ECIU based its calculation on AHDB crop-area estimates and initial yields, comparing them with forecasts published before the heatwaves by the US Department of Agriculture and European cereals association COCERAL.

Those earlier forecasts suggested production of between about 21.3 million and 22 million tonnes. ECIU estimates the subsequent decline could cost arable farmers as much as £390m in revenue at current ex-farm prices.

AHDB’s initial figures came from a survey of 60 farms covering about 38,500 hectares. At the time, 54% of the wheat crop had been harvested, with the average yield estimated at 6.8 tonnes per hectare against a ten-year average of 7.9 tonnes.

Wheat yields varied considerably between farms, ranging from 3.9 to 11.5 tonnes per hectare. Soil type, drilling date, previous crops and the use of organic fertilisers were among the factors linked to those differences.

Only 8% of spring barley and 32% of oats had been harvested, making their national results particularly uncertain. AHDB said it was too early to reach firm conclusions about spring barley yields.

Winter oilseed rape was performing more strongly, with an estimated yield of 3.9 tonnes per hectare compared with a ten-year average of 3.3 tonnes. The AHDB harvest report said final yields and production could change as harvesting continued.

Even if estimates improve, ECIU said 2026 was likely to rank among the five smallest harvests since detailed records began. That would mean four of the five poorest harvests had occurred during the current decade, following periods of extreme weather intensified by climate change.

Tom Lancaster, ECIU’s land, food and farming analyst, said: “At the start of spring farmers were hopeful of a better year, but the dry April and July and record-breaking heat have left farmers facing down the barrel of a third awful harvest in a row.”

Crops had entered the spring in relatively promising condition after a wet winter. Dry weather in April then affected cereals during a critical stage of development, before heatwaves in May, June and July limited the moisture available as grains filled.

Some important growing regions, including parts of eastern England, received almost no rain from the middle of June. Southern England also experienced its driest July since rainfall records began in 1836.

Martin Lines, chief executive of the Nature Friendly Farming Network and a Cambridgeshire farmer, said: “Harvest this year has been a real kick in the teeth.”

He said crops had initially looked promising before months of heat and drought damaged their yield potential. “I've never known it this dry and hot on our farm,” he added.

Lines said nature-friendly practices had helped his soils retain water for longer, but their protective effect was limited during prolonged extreme conditions.

Other parts of UK agriculture, including horticulture, dairy farming and potato production, have also been affected by the hot and dry weather.

ECIU said losses across the wider farming industry were therefore likely to exceed those estimated for cereals and oilseeds.