Higher or lower yield expectations?

The results from a poll of 832 farmers, conducted by the National Farm Research Unit (NFRU) in the last month, reveals that 26% of all farmers interviewed reported that their arable crops yielded more than they had expected, whilst 23% said their crops yielded less than they had expected. The majority had few surprises as 37% said that their crops yielded as they had expected, with the remaining farmers (14%) giving a ’don’t know’ answer.

As the 2009 harvesting period comes to a close, The National Farm Research Unit asked over eight hundred farmers if yields for their major arable crops - winter wheat, winter barley, spring barley and winter oilseed rape - were higher or lower than they had expected.

"The crop which appeared to be performing better was winter oilseed rape, with over a third of farmers saying that their yields were higher than they had anticipated. This result is supported by ADAS and NFU harvest reports in which the average national yield of rape was said to be above the five-year average at 3.6 t/ha."

There was considerable regional variation with regard to expectations however, with the East Midlands (47% of farmers), the Eastern region (46%) and the South west (45%) reporting higher than expected rape yields, whilst the West Midlands (31%), the North East (25%) and Scotland (25%) saying that their yields were lower. Once again this was reflected in industry assessments, where 5 t/ha crops were common, whilst there were also some crops yielding just 2 t/ha," says Jim Williams of the NFRU.

Key findings are

1)For winter wheat 27% of farmer said that yields were higher, 26% said that yields were lower than expected and 34% said that yields were as they expected.

2) For winter barley 20% of farmer said that yields were higher, 24% said that yields were lower than expected and 45% said that yields were as they expected.

3) For spring barley 26% of farmer said that yields were higher, 21% said that yields were lower than expected and 40% said that yields were as they expected.

4)For winter oilseed rape 33% of farmer said that yields were higher, 18% said that yields were lower than expected and 30% said that yields were as they expected.

"Regions where wheat yields were higher than expected included the South West (37%of farmers), the East Midlands (35%) and the North East (30%). Regions with wheat yields lower than expected included the North West, Ireland and Wales. ADAS report that winter wheat yields were close to average, with first wheats being higher, whilst the NFU reported that, with difficulties of autumn drilling and spring drought, yields were down slightly."

"When it comes to the barley crop, the NFRU poll indicated few surprises, with 45% of winter barley growers and 40% of spring barley growers saying yields were as expected. The winter barley crop saw a shift to lower than expected yields, with 24% of farmers reporting lower yields, whereas for the spring sown crop, more growers said they had achieved higher than expected yields (26%). Indications are that yields of winter barley were down overall, whereas the spring barley crop yielded around the five-year average."

The NFRU poll result indicates that the yield performances of winter wheat, winter barley and spring barley appear to be more accurately predictable and this could mean that arable farmers can be more precise with their planning, budgeting and marketing strategies, says Jim Williams.

For further information or comment, please contactJim Williams, Marketing and Communications Director of Precision Prospecting on 01728 622500 or by email at jim.williams@nfru.co.uk