Industry body warns fuel crisis could leave crops rotting in UK fields

Farmers could be forced to leave crops rotting in fields unless ministers prioritise fuel supplies as global shortages deepen, the Central Association of Agricultural Valuers (CAAV) has warned.

The organisation said disruption to global oil supplies linked to the escalating Gulf crisis could soon trigger major problems for British farming, food processing and supermarket supply chains.

The warning comes as arable farmers face a fourth consecutive difficult season, with rising input costs and continued financial losses already placing heavy pressure on food production.

Jeremy Moody, secretary and adviser to the CAAV, said sector analysts were warning of critically low supply levels within weeks if disruption continued.

“Reviews of the oil market by sector experts point to a tipping point in supplies in early June, with critically low global levels by the end of May and stocks exhausted by the end of June,” he said.

Mr Moody warned that while the worst impacts had so far been concentrated in South-East Asia, the consequences were rapidly moving towards the UK.

“We all need to be thinking now how to make the best of remaining supplies as fuel and other goods come to be limited by price, shortages or controls,” he added.

The CAAV warned harvesting, processing and transporting crops remained heavily dependent on fuel supplies, leaving UK food production highly exposed to disruption.

It said Britain’s complex food supply chains were particularly vulnerable — echoing shortages and empty supermarket shelves seen during the Covid pandemic.

The concerns extend beyond diesel supplies, with fears also growing over access to raw materials used in plastics manufacturing and carbon dioxide needed for food packaging.

The organisation warned restrictions could initially push food prices sharply higher before disrupting supplies altogether.

Mr Moody said even a swift resolution to the conflict would not immediately stabilise global markets.

“Physically blocking 20% and more of world supplies of oil and other commodities for months will inevitably have major consequences,” he said.

“The prospect of a long blockade extends that timetable, with long-term consequences for UK farming and food supply.”

The CAAV also warned domestic grain production could fall sharply if growers decide to cut autumn planting because of mounting financial pressures.

After three consecutive years of losses caused by low commodity prices and extreme weather, many arable farmers may choose not to plant parts of their land this autumn.

The situation has been compounded by soaring input costs ahead of the 2027 season.

According to the CAAV, red diesel prices have surged from around 65ppl to almost 140ppl at points, while nitrogen fertiliser costs are up 53% compared with last year.

The warning comes as wider agricultural inflation continues to intensify pressure on farm businesses. Recent analysis by Andersons found agricultural input inflation had reached 8.4%, while agricultural output prices had fallen 5.8% year-on-year, squeezing already fragile farm margins.

The consultancy warned the widening gap between rising production costs and weakening returns was creating a potential “cost of farming crisis”.

Harvest 2026 is forecast to deliver average losses of £56 an acre, rising to £139 an acre by harvest 2027.

“Across a 500-acre farm that equates to losses of £28,000 and £69,500, respectively,” Mr Moody said.

“The cumulative losses point to a significant strain on cash flow and credit, limiting farmers’ ability to plant even where they are minded to do so.”

The CAAV said the scale of disruption could amount to “exceptional circumstances” under Section 20 of the Agriculture Act 2020, potentially justifying government intervention.

Mr Moody said the issue should now be kept under close review by the Government’s Market Monitoring Group.

The government has not indicated whether emergency fuel prioritisation measures are under consideration.

The warning is likely to raise fresh concerns over the resilience of UK food production as farmers head into another costly and uncertain growing season.