Mediterranean heat threatens key UK food supplies

More than £18 billion of food imported into the UK each year comes from Mediterranean countries increasingly exposed to extreme heat, raising fresh concerns over food security and supply resilience.

New analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates agricultural workers across the region lost 2.8 billion potential working hours to heat stress in 2025. Average potential hours lost per worker rose from 66 in 1990 to almost 137 last year, an increase of 108%.

The findings come as UK farmers face their own weather and production pressures, increasing concern over how resilient overseas food supplies will be when domestic output is also under strain.

Around 40% of the food consumed in the UK is now imported, with Mediterranean countries playing an important role in supplying fruit, vegetables and products such as olive oil and wine.

In 2025, food imports from Mediterranean nations were worth £18.1 billion, equivalent to a quarter of the value of UK food imports. The ECIU says those imports represented around a tenth of the UK’s overall food supply.

France, Spain and Italy alone accounted for 81% of the value of UK food imports from the Mediterranean. The organisation says all three countries are experiencing increasing losses in agricultural working time as a result of extreme heat.

Agriculture is particularly exposed because much of the work involved in planting, tending and harvesting crops takes place outdoors. Globally, agricultural workers account for almost two-thirds of all potential working hours lost to heat stress, according to figures cited by the ECIU.

The analysis also points to rising food import costs. The value of Mediterranean food imports to the UK was 13% higher in 2025 than in 2022, while the volume imported by weight rose by just 1%.

The average price paid per kilogram increased by 12% over the same period.

Fresh fruit accounts for around 13% of UK food imports from Mediterranean countries, while vegetables make up a further 10%. Products include oranges, satsumas, mandarins, apples, pears, peppers, tomatoes, lettuce and avocados.

The ECIU says the price per kilogram of citrus fruit, including oranges and mandarins, rose by 40% over two years. Apple prices increased by a quarter over three years, while pear prices rose by 45%.

Olive oil has seen an even sharper rise. Between 2022 and 2024, the average price paid for Mediterranean olive oil imports increased from £3.89 per kilogram to £7.10, a rise of 83%.

The ECIU links part of that increase to extreme heat affecting Spain, the world’s largest olive oil producer.

Chris Jaccarini, senior economist on food and climate at the ECIU, said rising temperatures were creating another risk for agricultural production by affecting the people needed to grow and harvest food.

He said: “We’ve become used to talking about the impact of climate change on crops, but food production depends on people too.”

Mr Jaccarini added: “The growing toll which extreme heat is taking on the people working outdoors to plant, tend and harvest our food is becoming increasingly clear.”

He said the impact was becoming a concern not only for the health and wellbeing of agricultural workers, but also for the resilience of food supplies.

The analysis follows a summer of repeated heatwaves, drought and wildfires across parts of the Mediterranean, with more than 500,000 hectares of land burned, according to figures cited by the ECIU.

The organisation also points to record sea surface temperatures in parts of the western Mediterranean and says the region is warming rapidly.

Crop-based products such as fruit, vegetables, olive oil and wine can be particularly vulnerable to extreme weather because production depends on suitable growing conditions as well as workers being able to operate outdoors.

The ECIU argues that this creates an added vulnerability for the UK, particularly when domestic production is also under pressure and greater reliance is placed on imported supplies.

Mr Jaccarini said: “The UK's national security experts have warned that climate change is a growing threat to food security.”

He said improving the resilience of food production and supply chains would become increasingly important as extreme weather places greater pressure on farming regions.

The ECIU is also monitoring the potential impact of El Niño on global agriculture, with concerns over disrupted rainfall and crop production in other major food-producing areas.

Gareth Redmond-King, head of international programme at the ECIU, said: “This summer has been a stark and brutal reminder of the growing threats which climate change poses.”

The organisation argues that strengthening farm and supply-chain resilience will need to sit alongside efforts to limit further climate change.

For the UK, the figures underline the challenge of maintaining reliable food supplies when both British farmers and major overseas producers are increasingly exposed to extreme weather.