The next few weeks will be 'crucial' for growers as a new survey confirms a drastic reduction in crops across the country.
AHDB's survey, which follows its Early Bird Survey released in November 2023, has revealed a further fall in cropped areas.
Wheat is down 15% at 1.463 Mha, the biggest reduction in cropped areas since 2020, while oilseed rape is down 28% at 280 Kha, the largest fall since the 1980s.
Winter barley is down 22% at 355 Kha, the biggest reduction since 2020, but spring barley is up 29%, at 881 Kha.
The wet autumn meant lower levels of planting, and continued severe weather resulted in winter losses, the levy organisation said.
It said farmers still had the chance to plant crops, but if heavy rain continued, crops would be planted at a point where they may become economically unviable.
Helen Plant, senior analyst for AHDB, said: “We are heading to the point where spring-sown winter wheat varieties will not be able to develop sufficiently to provide a viable crop.
"There is a clear intention to plant more spring wheat, but the persistence of wet weather means there is uncertainty about whether this can be done."
While the area of spring wheat is small in comparison to the total wheat area, any areas that can’t be planted would further reduce the total wheat area.
All parts of the UK have suffered. The East Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber are reported as the worst affected, with notable flooding in these areas.
Less severe impacts are reported for Scotland and Southern England, where periods of less extreme rainfall seem to have allowed more planting to take place.
AHDB said that the UK would need to import more wheat in the coming year and potentially in 2025-2026.
It added that the condition of crops was now 'a huge focus', with unfavourable weather putting the yield at risk of being significantly reduced
Depending on what happens in this year’s harvest, the availability of straw could be reduced, spreading the impact throughout the agricultural sector
David Eudall, AHDB economics and analysis director, explained that wheat production could fall from ~14 Mt to ~10 Mt or less.
"Wheat processors, flour millers and bakers will be looking to import greater quantities of wheat this season for production into bread and animal feed," he said.
“After seeing a period of heightened prices for cereals, the world market has now cooled off as supplies are strong and the impact of the Ukrainian conflict has been absorbed into supply chains.
"While we may need to import more, we’re doing this at a point currently where prices have fallen. These lower prices are one of the reasons we’ve seen food price inflation fall in recent months."
Mr Eudall added: “If we see continued lower production from poor weather, stubborn costs (e.g. fertiliser) and unprofitable prices, we will continually need more imports and further expose our market for a staple product in bread to the world trade."
“A greater reliance on imports means that as global prices rise due to weather or geopolitics, UK food producers using wheat would need to pay a higher price to attract wheat into the country rather than having access to a locally available supply.
"While current market conditions are favourable to consumers, they are not supporting farmers who are facing lower incomes and higher costs."
