NFU Cymru urges action as global conflict drives farm cost concerns

NFU Cymru has warned Welsh farmers are facing rising costs and growing supply uncertainty as conflict in the Middle East disrupts fuel and fertiliser markets, with the full impact unlikely to be felt for months.

The union has urged the UK government to take a closer look at the situation after meeting Wales Office Minister Anna McMorrin on 14 April to outline mounting pressures across the sector.

Union leaders said volatility seen over the past month is already affecting farm businesses, but the real consequences may only become clear later in the year as current decisions on spending and production begin to take effect.

NFU Cymru President Abi Reader and Deputy President Paul Williams presented evidence from members across Wales, highlighting sharp fluctuations in both the price and availability of key inputs essential for food production.

They warned that farmers are being forced to make difficult decisions now, with knock-on effects likely to feed through into production levels and potentially food supply in the months ahead.

Cashflow is becoming a major concern, driven by rising costs and uncertainty over what farmers will ultimately pay for inputs upon delivery.

This lack of clarity is adding further strain to farm businesses at a time when confidence and stability are critical.

Abi Reader said the meeting provided an opportunity to underline the scale of the challenge facing Welsh agriculture.

“With the Wales Office acting as our link into the heart of the UK government, we were pleased to have the opportunity to meet with the Minister to provide a picture of the challenges our farmers are dealing with as a result of the impact of the war in the Middle East,” she said.

She added that the union had called for closer scrutiny of markets to ensure fairness and transparency.

“We stressed the importance of continued regular dialogue between NFU Cymru and the Wales Office, for UK government to closely and actively monitor input markets to give confidence that they are operating transparently,” she said.

The union also urged government to assess the longer-term implications for domestic food production and take action to support the sector.

The pressure comes as wider industry concern grows over rising costs, with warnings that farmers across the UK could stage protests over tax and fuel prices.

Fuel and fertiliser markets have been pushed higher by global energy disruption linked to tensions involving Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.

Latest analysis by Andersons shows agricultural input inflation reached 7.6% in March 2026 — well above general inflation at 3.0% and food inflation at 3.2%.

At the same time, farm output prices have fallen by 6.5% year-on-year, leaving many producers squeezed between rising costs and weaker returns.

NFU Cymru warned that global instability is already feeding through into farm businesses, with further pressure expected to impact production and food supply later this year.