Oilseed rape looks set for a major comeback next year, with early forecasts suggesting farmers could increase the crop’s area by nearly a third for harvest 2026, according to new data released today.
Provisional findings from the AHDB Early Bird Survey, carried out in early November, indicate a 30% rise in the UK oilseed rape area compared with last year’s low point, alongside a small 1% increase in wheat.
Barley and oat plantings, however, are expected to decline. The figures draw on 2025 planting data to produce early projections for next season’s crop areas.
Oilseed rape’s area hit a 42-year low in 2025 due to a combination of cabbage stem flea beetle pressure, challenging drilling conditions and volatile market returns — factors that have pushed many growers out of the crop in recent seasons.
The projected 2026 rebound therefore represents recovery from an unusually depressed base rather than a return to historic norms.
AHDB also cautioned that in recent years the gap between planted and harvested areas has widened due to extreme weather, and that this uncertainty should be factored into forward planning.
Helen Plant, senior analyst at AHDB, said oilseed rape was “the stand out for 2026”, with the crop projected to rise to 316 Kha. She added that despite the increase, the area would still be “clearly below” the 391 Kha recorded in 2023.
Plant said that while drilling conditions were generally favourable this autumn, growers are facing a tougher market environment. Lower grain prices, reduced milling and malting premiums, and higher input costs are shaping planting decisions across the UK.
These pressures have also contributed to expected declines in barley and oat areas, as growers reassess rotations, margins and commitments under agri-environment schemes.
Oilseed rape, by contrast, appears to offer a more favourable margin outlook for 2026, supported by the “good yields achieved in 2025” and a need to rebalance rotations after two seasons of poor cereal performance.
The Early Bird Survey, carried out annually by the Andersons Centre, gathered insights from nearly 70 agronomists covering around 600 Kha of arable land.
While the results provide an early indication of planting intentions, final adjusted figures — including regional breakdowns — will be published after Defra releases the full UK June survey results for 2025 in mid-December.
