Third consecutive small wheat harvest puts UK market under pressure

UK wheat production is estimated at just 11.6 million tonnes this year, with feed wheat futures up 17% since July as a third successive small crop combines with mounting global supply risks.

If realised, the 2026 crop would mark the third consecutive year of sub-12 million tonne production and leave output 14% below the 10-year average for 2016 to 2025.

UK Flour Millers said the decline reflected a smaller crop area and below-average yields after exceptionally dry and hot conditions through the spring and summer.

Despite the reduced harvest, milling wheat quality appears more encouraging.

The organisation said milling wheat functionality was “reportedly good”, while supplies meeting industry quality requirements were “expected to be sufficient”.

UK feed wheat futures for November 2026 delivery have risen by 17% since July, equivalent to an increase of £31.50 per tonne.

UK Flour Millers said the rise reflected concerns over the smaller domestic crop alongside wider geopolitical risks affecting international grain markets.

Attacks on grain export infrastructure and commercial shipping in the Black Sea have disrupted Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports, increasing freight, insurance and supply risks.

Although the global wheat market remains relatively well supplied overall, Russia and Ukraine account for a significant share of world wheat trade, meaning disruption in the region continues to support prices.

Conflict in the Middle East is adding further pressure through elevated energy, fuel and fertiliser costs.

Those higher input prices are creating another challenge for growers already dealing with reduced yields and greater market volatility.

UK Flour Millers warned that if fertiliser and fuel costs remain high, some farmers could reduce investment in inputs, potentially depressing yields and wheat production again in 2027.

Milling wheat could be particularly exposed because it generally requires higher levels of nitrogen fertiliser than feed wheat.

The combination of a third consecutive small domestic crop, higher production costs and uncertainty over global supplies is therefore keeping pressure on the UK wheat market.

With input costs still elevated, attention is already turning to whether reduced farm investment could place further pressure on UK wheat yields and production in 2027.