UK farms face £10bn climate loss risk without stronger defences

UK farms could face agricultural losses of more than £10 billion in an extreme climate year unless investment in flood defences and resilience is stepped up, new research has warned.

Stronger flood protection and other adaptation measures could cut wider UK climate-related losses by almost 30%, according to a study by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

The research warns that agriculture and food production are among the areas exposed to worsening flooding, extreme heat and disruption to productivity as temperatures rise.

It found that under a “High Warming” scenario, with temperatures 3.4°C above pre-industrial levels by the 2050s, welfare losses could reach the equivalent of at least 4.2% of GDP at current levels of resilience.

The study said the UK was already experiencing economic damage linked to climate change, with risks expected to increase across agriculture, flooding, health and productivity.

“The United Kingdom is experiencing significant economic impacts from climate change, and these will increase in future decades.”

It adds: “Without comprehensive and well-funded adaptation strategies, risks will grow, including from agriculture losses, flooding, and impacts on health and productivity.”

By the 2050s, the researchers estimate there could be a one-in-200-year risk of at least one severe climate-related impact occurring in a single year if resilience is not significantly improved.

That could include agricultural losses exceeding £10 billion, flood damage of more than £60 billion and labour productivity losses above £70 billion.

Heat-related excess mortality could also exceed 21,000 deaths under the same type of extreme scenario.

The study highlights flooding as one of the major economic risks facing the UK, alongside agricultural losses and falling labour productivity.

Investment in stronger flood defences and more climate-resilient infrastructure could reduce projected domestic risks by nearly 30%, according to the research.

The study said spending beginning at levels outlined in the UK’s third National Adaptation Programme, and increasing as risks rise, could significantly reduce future damage.

It also estimates that the UK population had already experienced warming of around 2.1°C by 2025, with welfare losses linked to climate impacts equivalent to at least 2% of GDP.

The research was led by Dr James Rising of the University of Delaware and was designed to inform HM Treasury and other fiscal decision-makers about potential adaptation spending.

The findings form part of the PROSPER project, which examines climate-related risks and the economic case for investing in resilience across areas including agriculture, flooding, coastal management, health and productivity.

Researchers stressed that improving adaptation should not be treated as an alternative to cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

“While adaptation measures bring major benefits, strengthened global efforts to mitigate climate change remain critical.”

The study said avoiding the High Warming scenario could halve domestic economic risks in the UK.

Dr James Rising, Visiting Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute, said the economic case for earlier investment was clear.

“The benefits of adaptation far exceed the costs, whether you measure it in economic, financial, or fiscal terms. Governments should invest in adaptation now to get the greatest returns.”

Professor Nicola Ranger, Executive Director of Earth Capital Nexus at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said farms and businesses were already experiencing the consequences of climate change.

“These are not distant or abstract risks. Climate change is already costing the UK lives, damaging businesses and farms, and undermining growth and productivity.”

She warned that repeated flooding, drought and extreme heat could disrupt infrastructure, public services and supply chains, placing further pressure on businesses and local economies.

“Adaptation must therefore become a core economic priority – embedded in Treasury decisions and delivered through sustained investment and locally led action. The costs of continued delay are simply too high.”