UK grain growers among hardest hit as European harvest losses soar

Europe’s grain harvest has taken an estimated €3.2 billion (£2.72bn) hit after extreme heat and drought wiped 16.7 million tonnes from production forecasts.

The losses were far worse than initially expected, with the latest figures showing an eight million tonne deterioration compared with forecasts made in July.

UK farmers are estimated to have lost three million tonnes of grain production, worth around €527 million (£448m).

France was the worst affected country, with production down by 5.8 million tonnes, valued at €1.47 billion (£1.25bn).

Hungary recorded an estimated 3.1 million tonne fall, worth €723 million (£614m), while Germany lost 2.5 million tonnes, valued at €398 million (£338m), and Spain 1.2 million tonnes, worth €220 million (£187m).

The figures come from new analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), based on September forecasts from industry body COCERAL. The analysis compares those forecasts with expectations published in June for crops including wheat, maize and barley.

Extreme temperatures disrupted crop development, including wheat grain formation and maize pollination, while the area planted with maize was also reduced.

Earlier ECIU analysis had put the financial impact at €1.8 billion (£1.53bn), but continued heat and drought through July and August pushed losses considerably higher.

In the UK, July was the driest on record in England and Wales, following periods of extreme heat in May and June. ECIU estimates those conditions reduced the UK harvest by three million tonnes.

The effects have also been severe at farm level across mainland Europe.

French cereal farmer Sébastien Neveux, who farms 300 hectares in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté region, said every crop on his farm had been affected.

“This year, on my farm, all my crops have been affected.”

Neveux said winter crops had suffered yield losses of around 25 per cent, while spring and summer crops were hit much harder.

“Sunflowers, for example, yielded 0.7 tonnes per hectare instead of the usual 1.5 to 2, which is a 60 per cent loss.”

He said the early arrival of extreme temperatures had made the season particularly difficult, adding: “With heatwaves starting as early as May, I can no longer find a solution.”

Neveux said weather-related losses were being compounded by wider economic pressures, including high production costs and market prices he said were too low to cover them.

Tom Lancaster, farming analyst at ECIU, said the scale of the losses showed how severe the summer had been.

“This summer’s extreme heat and drought has been unprecedented, costing Europe production equivalent to the entire grain output of Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands combined.”

Lancaster said the fall in production was also adding to concerns over food security during a period of geopolitical uncertainty.

“At a time of geopolitical uncertainty, climate change is reducing our continents productive capacity and food security when we can least afford it.”

ECIU has called for greater investment in measures designed to make farms more resilient to extreme weather, including improved soil health and regenerative farming practices.

The €3.2 billion (£2.72bn) figure represents the net reduction across the countries analysed. Production forecasts were revised upwards in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Sweden, partially offsetting losses elsewhere.

Excluding those gains, ECIU estimates losses in countries where production fell at around €4.1 billion (£3.48bn).

The impact of the summer’s weather has also extended beyond grain.

The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre has estimated soybean yields are down 15 per cent, while potato yields have fallen seven per cent and sugar beet yields 11 per cent. Reduced grass growth has also affected livestock farms.

Scientists at World Weather Attribution have said the June heatwave would have been “virtually impossible” 50 years ago without climate change.

In some of the worst-hit areas, crop damage has been so severe that harvesting is no longer considered economically viable, leaving some fields abandoned rather than harvested.