Warmer UK climate raises risk of new crop pests, Met Office warns

Farmers could face a growing wave of invasive pests as rising temperatures make the UK more hospitable to new species, the Met Office has warned.

The organisation said warmer conditions are increasing the chances of harmful insects surviving, spreading and becoming established, posing serious risks to agriculture and forestry.

The warning comes after 2025 was confirmed as the warmest year on record in the UK, with an annual average temperature of 10.09°C — the highest in a series dating back to 1884.

It was also only the second year in which the UK’s average temperature exceeded 10°C, underlining the scale of recent climate change.

Dr Debbie Hemming, a Met Office scientist leading research into the links between climate and nature, said shifting conditions are already changing where pests can thrive.

“With the warmer climate and recent extreme events, many species are shifting their ranges into locations previously too cold,” she said.

“This includes pests that were previously unable to survive in the UK.”

She warned that many new arrivals pose “significant risks” to farming, forestry and natural habitats.

“As our climate changes, we can expect further new arrivals,” she added.

To help experts respond, Met Office scientists have developed the UK Climate-Pest Risk web tool in collaboration with Defra’s plant health risk and horizon scanning team.

The tool helps assess which pests are most likely to survive under future UK climate conditions and supports the development of effective prevention and management plans.

It currently covers nine high-risk insect pests affecting agriculture and forestry, including the Colorado potato beetle, peach potato aphid and the brown marmorated stink bug.

The Met Office said the spread of such pests could increase crop losses, add pressure on control costs and create new challenges for growers and land managers.

One recent success highlighted was the targeted eradication of the Colorado beetle — a serious threat to potato crops — from the UK.

Dr Hemming said climate modelling can play a key role in strengthening resilience.

“Modelling and mapping the climate sensitivities of high-risk pest species, such as Colorado beetle, helps to inform the effective management actions that are already building resilience in our agriculture and forestry sectors to emerging pests,” she said.

The Met Office said pest threats are among the growing issues linked to the twin pressures of climate change and biodiversity loss.

These challenges are being discussed this week at the twelfth annual session of IPBES, the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, taking place in Manchester.

Met Office scientists are attending the meeting to strengthen links with biodiversity experts and highlight the need to tackle the climate and nature crises together.

The organisation said early monitoring, rapid action and stronger collaboration will be crucial in protecting farming, forestry and ecosystems as the UK continues to warm.

Growers are also being encouraged to stay alert for unusual pest sightings and report concerns promptly, as new species increasingly threaten to take hold.