One in ten cereal acres effectively lost to extreme weather, analysis finds

Extreme weather has wiped out cereal production equivalent to more than a tenth of England’s arable land, raising alarm over the growing threat to UK food security.

New figures from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) show that harvest losses in 2024 and 2025 equate to around 13% of the land used to grow wheat, barley and oats in England, once reduced yields and crop losses are factored in.

For farmers, the losses highlight the increasing difficulty of maintaining yields as weather extremes intensify.

The findings come as the government prepares to publish its first Land Use Framework, setting out how land will be used to balance food production, nature recovery and climate resilience.

Recent harvests have been among the worst on record. England experienced its wettest October to March period in 2023/24, leaving many farmers unable to drill crops or access fields for months.

This was followed by the hottest spring on record in 2025 — and the driest for more than a century — sharply cutting yields.

Waterlogged fields reduced the area that could be planted, while drought conditions then cut yields per hectare. Together, the two extremes created a significant drop in overall production.

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at ECIU, said the data highlights the growing impact of climate change on agriculture.

“It is sometimes reported that action to tackle climate change will lead to farmland being ‘lost’,” he said.

“What this analysis makes clear is that extreme weather, made worse by climate change, is already hitting the production of staple crops, to the extent that we have already seen production wiped out… equivalent to more than a tenth of our wheat and barley growing area.”

The figures are likely to intensify debate over how land should be used as pressures grow on both food production and environmental targets.

The data also points to growing long-term risks for both farm businesses and national food supply, with earlier ECIU estimates suggesting poor harvests this decade have already reduced UK milling wheat production by the equivalent of more than a year’s supply of bread.

For many arable farmers, this has translated into lower output and increased financial pressure.

Lancaster warned the impacts could worsen, pointing to “a future of increasingly unmanageable impacts on food production and farm incomes” without action.

“With extremes set to worsen until the world reaches net zero emissions, continuing as we are is not an option,” he said.

He added that Defra’s Land Use Framework is “an important step” in helping guide decisions, including measures such as tree planting to reduce flood risk while maintaining food production.

The analysis underscores the growing strain on UK farming as weather volatility increases, with pressure intensifying to protect farm incomes and safeguard domestic food production.