The share of high-quality farmland could fall sharply by 2050 without climate adaptation, a report warns
Britain's food security faces mounting threats from rising costs, climate change and pressure on domestic production, prompting fresh calls for an urgent overhaul of government food policy.
A new report, commissioned by Associated British Foods (ABF), warns that food prices have climbed around 40% since 2020, while soaring energy costs and environmental pressures threaten the resilience of UK agriculture and food manufacturing.
The independent research, Food Resilience in a Changing World, produced by London Economics, calls for a National Strategy for Food Resilience to 2050 to protect future food supplies.
One of its starkest warnings concerns the future of British farmland.
Under a scenario involving 2°C of global warming, the proportion of high-quality farmland in England and Wales could fall from around 40% historically to just 10% by 2050 without adaptation.
The findings raise concerns about Britain's long-term agricultural production capacity as farmers face increasing pressure from climate change and environmental degradation.
The warning comes as official Defra figures show the UK's food production-to-supply ratio fell from 65% in 2024 to 60% in 2025.
The measure, often described as food self-sufficiency, is calculated by value and can be influenced by changes in import prices, rather than changes in domestic production alone.
Britain's food, feed and drink trade deficit also reached £42.1 billion in 2025, with imports worth £67.8 billion compared with exports of £25.7 billion.
George Weston, chief executive of Associated British Foods, warned that the country could no longer take reliable food supplies for granted.
“The challenges facing our food system are growing and so food security can’t be taken for granted.”
The report highlights the importance of Britain's £162 billion agri-food sector, which supports approximately 4.1 million jobs, accounting for around 12% of the workforce.
Food and drink manufacturing alone contributes £39 billion to the economy, making it the UK's largest manufacturing sector.
The industry is also particularly important to disadvantaged communities, with food manufacturing employment roughly twice as high in the most deprived urban areas as in the least deprived.
Despite the growing pressures, Britain remains relatively well placed internationally, ranking third in Economist Impact's 2026 Resilient Food Systems Index, according to the report.
However, researchers warn that existing strengths should not lead to complacency as climate change, rising costs and supply chain disruption create longer-term risks.
Central to the report's recommendations is a long-term national strategy setting measurable targets for food resilience, affordability, nutrition and domestic production.
The recommendations follow the government's earlier food strategy work and the publication of its Good Food Cycle framework for England in July 2025.
That strategy set out plans to create a healthier, more affordable and resilient food system, while strengthening domestic production and supply chains.
However, the new research calls for a longer-term approach, with measurable targets and regular scrutiny to ensure food resilience remains a priority across government.
It also calls for stronger coordination between departments responsible for agriculture, trade, energy, health and the environment, alongside annual progress reports and parliamentary oversight.
Tackling high industrial energy costs is another priority, with researchers proposing consideration of targeted support for strategically important food manufacturers and processors.
The report also urges greater investment in agricultural innovation, including precision breeding, automation and robotics, to boost productivity and strengthen domestic production.
A dedicated food manufacturing sector plan is proposed to encourage investment, while trade policies should protect essential UK production capacity without undermining international supply chains.
Researchers also want ministers to assess how taxation, business rates, planning regulations and skills funding affect long-term investment in British food production.
Weston said a more coordinated government response was essential to securing the industry's future.
“The response requires a more joined-up and urgent approach from policymakers. That means putting food manufacturing at the heart of reindustrialisation, tackling high industrial energy costs and ensuring trade policy supports domestic production.”
The report was launched at a parliamentary event on Tuesday 10 November, bringing together representatives from government, parliament and the food industry to discuss the future of UK food security.
John Curnow, partner at London Economics, said growing global uncertainty made strengthening the country's food system increasingly important.
“In a more volatile world, food resilience has never been more important. But building a resilient food system means balancing competing priorities, from affordability and economic growth to environmental and health objectives.”
He stressed that protecting future food supplies would require a balance between strengthening British production and maintaining international trading relationships.
“Our research shows that resilience depends on both strong domestic production and international trade. Government has a critical role to play in identifying vulnerabilities across the food system, addressing risks and ensuring that the right policies are in place to safeguard food supplies for the future.”