African swine fever remains a major threat to pig producers, despite never being detected in the UK
British pig farmers could benefit from new research into African swine fever (ASF), as scientists investigate how the deadly disease spreads and what an outbreak could cost the industry.
The University of Sheffield is leading an international project aimed at improving disease prediction, prevention and outbreak responses.
Announced on 22 October, the programme comes as the UK pig sector remains on alert for a disease capable of devastating herds, disrupting pork exports and causing substantial financial losses.
Although African swine fever has never been detected in the UK, it continues to circulate in parts of Europe, Asia and Africa.
An outbreak could trigger movement restrictions, compulsory culling and disruption to international trade, placing considerable pressure on pig producers and the wider supply chain.
The disease affects domestic pigs and wild boar, often causing severe illness and high mortality, but poses no risk to human health.
The new research programme, known as ASF Nexus, will investigate how outbreaks develop and which measures could most effectively limit their spread and economic consequences.
Led by Professor Pete Dodd, an expert in mathematical modelling and epidemiology, the project brings together specialists in biology, mathematics, economics and behavioural science.
Researchers will examine how farming practices, financial pressures, human behaviour and local policies influence disease transmission.
They will also model potential outbreaks and assess the financial impact of different control measures, including the consequences for farmers and their livelihoods.
The research will focus on the UK and Southeast Asia, with initial work taking place in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo.
Scientists hope to develop freely accessible outbreak prediction tools, practical guidance for farming communities and recommendations to help governments improve disease preparedness.
Professor Dodd said: “African swine fever is one of the most serious threats facing pig farming worldwide.”
He said the project would bring together expertise from several scientific disciplines to improve understanding of the disease and how it can be tackled.
ASF Nexus involves researchers from the University of Liverpool's Pandemic Institute, Liverpool John Moores University and scientific institutions in Malaysia and Thailand.
The programme is among 18 research projects supported by a wider £54 million investment from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and government partners.
The funding covers biological threats to human, animal and plant health, rather than being allocated solely to African swine fever research.
For British pig farmers, the project comes amid continuing efforts to strengthen the country's defences against a possible outbreak.
In May, Defra published an updated swine fever control strategy introducing more flexible disease restriction zones, enhanced surveillance and risk-based livestock movement licensing.
The measures are intended to help contain outbreaks while limiting unnecessary disruption to farm businesses and animal welfare.
Separately, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has commissioned an economic assessment of a potential ASF outbreak in Great Britain.
That research will examine the consequences for pig producers, processors and exporters, including the impact of disease restrictions on trade and farm incomes.
Its findings are expected in the first quarter of 2027 and will help inform industry preparedness.
Meanwhile, pig keepers are being urged to maintain strict biosecurity, including cleaning vehicles and equipment, controlling access to farms and preventing pigs from consuming food waste.
Feeding catering waste, kitchen scraps or meat products to pigs is illegal, while suspected cases of ASF must be reported immediately.
Although the Sheffield-led research marks another effort to strengthen disease preparedness, it will not bring immediate changes to farm biosecurity requirements or outbreak controls.
No timetable has been announced for when its findings or prediction tools will become available to British producers.
For pig farmers, the value of ASF Nexus will ultimately depend on whether its findings lead to better outbreak prediction, more effective disease controls and reduced financial losses.